Machine learning in agricultural planting, growing, and harvesting contexts

ABSTRACT

A crop prediction system performs various machine learning operations to predict crop production and to identify a set of farming operations that, if performed, optimize crop production. The crop prediction system uses crop prediction models trained using various machine learning operations based on geographic and agronomic information. Responsive to receiving a request from a grower, the crop prediction system can access information representation of a portion of land corresponding to the request, such as the location of the land and corresponding weather conditions and soil composition. The crop prediction system applies one or more crop prediction models to the access information to predict a crop production and identify an optimized set of farming operations for the grower to perform.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No.62/542,705, filed Aug. 8, 2017, which is incorporated by reference inits entirety.

TECHNICAL FIELD

This specification relates generally to the application of machinelearning operations to data from disparate sources to optimizeagricultural production.

BACKGROUND

A grower is a farmer or other agricultural producer that plants, grows,and harvests crops, such as grain (e.g., wheat), fibers (e.g., cotton),vegetables, fruits, and so forth. Various geographic, weather-related,agronomic, and environmental factors may affect crop production. Some ofthese factors are within the control of the grower, whereas others arenot. For example, the grower can change planting strategies or affectsoil composition, but cannot control the weather. Further, the quantityof information associated with these factors that is readily availableto a grower can be so large as to limit the amount of the information agrower can utilize when making planting, growing, and harvestingdecisions, even when utilizing existing crop production models.Accordingly, growers are often making decisions that can affect cropproduction based on an incomplete set of information or an imperfectunderstanding and analysis of available information.

SUMMARY

In one embodiment, a system optimizes crop productivity by accessingcrop growth information describing, for each of a plurality of plots ofland, 1) characteristics of the plots of land, 2) a type of crop plantedon the plot of land, 3) characteristics of farming operations performedfor the planted crop, and 4) a corresponding crop productivity. Thesystem normalizes the crop growth information by formatting similarportions of the crop growth information into a unified format and aunified scale and stores the normalized crop growth information in acolumnar database. The system trains a crop prediction engine byapplying one or more machine learning operations to the storednormalized crop growth information. The crop prediction engine maps, fora particular type of crop, a combination of one or more characteristicsof the plot of land and characteristics of farming operations performedfor the planted crop to an expected corresponding crop productivity. Inresponse to receiving a request from a grower to optimize cropproductivity for a first type of crop and a first portion of land onwhich the first crop is to be planted, the request identifying a firstset of farming operations to be performed by the grower, the systemaccesses field information describing characteristics of the firstportion of land and applies the crop prediction engine to the accessedfield information and the first set of farming operations to produce afirst expected crop productivity. The system applies the crop predictionengine to the accessed field information to identify a second set offarming operations that can produce a second expected crop productivityand modifies the first set of farming operations based on the second setof farming operations to produce a modified set of farming operations.Responsive to the second expected productivity being greater than thefirst expected productivity, the system presents, within an interface ofa device associated with the grower, the modified set of farmingoperations. The grower performs the modified set of farming operationsfor the first type of crop on the first portion of land.

In another embodiment, a system executes a method for crop productivityoptimization by accessing, for a first portion of land associated with auser, field information describing characteristics of the first portionof land related to crop growth from a plurality of data sources. Thesystem applies a prediction model to the accessed field information. Theprediction model is trained on crop growth information and maps, forsets of land characteristics, one or more farming operations to cropproductivities by performing one or more machine learning operations.Based on an output of the prediction model, the system selects a set offarming operations that maximize crop productivity and modifies a userinterface displayed by a client device of the user to display a cropgrowth program based on the selected set of farming operations.

Normalizing the crop growth information can include one or more of:removing format-specific content from the crop growth information,removing or modifying portions of the crop growth information associatedwith values that fall outside of one or more predefined ranges, andscaling image information such that each image pixel represents a samedistance.

The one or more machine learning operations can include one or more of:a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, anon-parametric regression operation, a random forest classifier, aspatial regression operation, a Bayesian regression model, a time seriesanalysis, a Bayesian network, a Gaussian network, a decision treelearning operation, an artificial neural network, a recurrent neuralnetwork, a reinforcement learning operation, linear/non-linearregression operations, a support vector machine, a clustering operation,and a genetic algorithm operation.

The growth information can include information about one or more ofcorn, rice, cotton, and soybeans. In an embodiment, the growthinformation includes information about crop varieties, date ranges forplanting crops, crop planting rate ranges, crop planting depth, soiltemperatures for planting crops, atmospheric temperatures for plantingcrops, soil textures for planting crops, soil types for planting crops,weather conditions for planting crops, drainage conditions for plantingcrops, crop seedbed preparation methods, and crop planting locations. Inan embodiment, the growth information includes information about one ormore of: row spacing, a number of rows, a type of irrigation, a type oftillage, a type of seed treatment, a type of foliar treatment, a type offloral treatment, a type of soil treatment, a soil type, a soil pH, soilnutrient composition, previously planted crop types and varieties,effects of microbial composition or treatment, microbial compositionapplication rate and date, effects of insecticide and insecticideapplication rate and date, effects of fungicide and fungicideapplication rate and date, and effects of fertilizer and fertilizerapplication rate and date. In an embodiment, the growth informationincludes information about one or more of: a microbial communitycomposition, a microbial community gene expression, a microbialcommunity protein production, a microbial community volatile organiccompound production, a plant gene expression, a plant proteinproduction, a plant volatile organic compound production, a microbialcommunity metabolite production, and a plant metabolite production.

The growth information can be collected from a plurality of fields in aplurality of locations associated with a threshold geographic and/orenvironmental diversity. In an embodiment, the growth information iscollected over a plurality of growing seasons, and over a plurality oftimes within each season.

The field information can include one or more of: information describinghistorical characteristics of the first portion of land and informationdescribing current characteristics of the first portion of land. In anembodiment, accessing field information comprises collecting the fieldinformation from one or more sensors located at the first portion ofland. In an embodiment, accessing field information collected from thesensors includes one or more of: soil temperature, air temperature, soilmoisture, leaf temperature, leaf wetness, and spectral data overmultiple wave length bands reflected from or absorbed by ground. In anembodiment, field information collected from the sensors is used tocompute additional field information, including one or more of: a ratioof soil to air temperature, a ratio of leaf to air temperature, a soilwetness index, a number of cumulative growing degree days, a chlorophyllcontent, evapotranspiration, a daily light integral, a daily minimumtemperature, a daily mean temperature, a daily maximum temperature, anda change in the normalized difference vegetation index. In anembodiment, the one or more sensors include thermometers, barometers,weather detection sensors, soil composition sensors, soil moisturesensors, hygrometers, pyranometers, pyrheliometers, spectrometers,spectrophotometers, spectrographs, spectral analyzers, refractometers,spectroradiometers, radiometers, electrical conductivity sensors, and pHsensors. In an embodiment, accessing the field information comprisescollecting images of the first portion of land from one or more asatellite, an aircraft, an unmanned aerial vehicle, a land-basedvehicle, and a land-based camera system.

The crop prediction engine can map combinations of field informationinputs and farming operation inputs to crop productivity probabilitydistributions based on one or more machine-learned relationships betweencombinations of portions of the crop growth information andcorresponding crop productivities. In this embodiment, applying the cropprediction engine to the accessed field information and the first set offarming operations comprises determining, based on the one or moremachine-learned relationships, the first expected crop productivity forthe first type of crop planted and grown at the first portion of landusing the first set of farming operations. In an embodiment, applyingthe crop prediction engine to the accessed field information comprisesidentifying, based on the one or more machine-learned relationships, thesecond set of farming operations that maximize the crop productivityprobability distribution for the first type of crop.

The second set of operation can include one or more of: a seeding rateoperation, a seeding date range operation, an operation to not plant acrop, an operation to plant a different type of crop than the first typeof crop, and a fertilizer application operation. In an embodiment, thefertilizer application operation specifies an application of one or moremacronutrient and/or micronutrient. In an embodiment, the second set ofoperations includes one or more of: a seeding depth operation, a harvestdate range operation, a seed treatment operation, a foliar treatmentoperation, a floral treatment operation, a soil treatment operation, areseeding operation, a microbial composition application operation, aninsecticide application operation, an herbicide application operation,and a pesticide application operation.

The prediction model can be applied to the accessed field informationbefore planting a crop within the first portion of land. In anembodiment, prediction model is applied to the accessed fieldinformation after planting a crop within the first portion of land. Inan embodiment, field information is updated and accessed periodically,and wherein the prediction model is re-applied to the periodicallyaccessed field information. In an embodiment, the crop growth program isperiodically modified in response to re-applying the prediction model tothe periodically accessed field information. In an embodiment, theprediction model is applied to the accessed field information prior toharvesting a crop from the first portion of land. In an embodiment, theprediction model is applied to the accessed field information after anoccurrence of a triggering event. For example, the triggering eventcomprises one of: a weather event, a temperature event, a plant growthstage event, a water event, a pest event, a fertilizing event, and afarming machinery-related event. In an embodiment, prediction model isapplied to the accessed field information in response to a request froma grower, a technology provider, a service provider, a commodity trader,a broker, an insurance provider, an agronomist, or other entityassociated with the first portion of the land.

The selected set of farming operations can identify one or more of: atype or variety of crop to plant if any, an intercrop to plant, a covercrop to plant, a portion of the first portion of land on which to planta crop, a date to plant a crop, a planting rate, a planting depth, amicrobial composition, a portion of the first portion of land on whichto apply a microbial composition, a date to apply a microbialcomposition, a rate of application for a microbial composition, anagricultural chemical to apply, a portion of the first portion of landon which to apply an agricultural chemical, a date to apply anagricultural chemical, a rate of application for an agriculturalchemical, type of irrigation if any, a date to apply irrigation, and arate of application for irrigation. In an embodiment, the selected setof farming operations identifies one or more of a type, a method ofapplication, an application location, and an application volume of oneor more of a plant growth regulator, a defoliant, and a desiccant. In anembodiment, the selected set of farming operations identifies one ormore of: whether to replant the crop within the first portion of land,whether to replant a different crop within the first portion of land,and a replant date. In an embodiment, the selected set of farmingoperations identifies one or more of: a type of nutrient to apply, aquantity of nutrient to apply, a location to apply a nutrient, a date toapply a nutrient, a frequency to apply a nutrient, and a nutrientapplication method. In an embodiment, an identified nutrient comprisesone or more of: N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cl, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, and Zn. In anembodiment, the selected set of farming operations identifies one ormore of: a quantity of water to apply, a location to apply water, a dateto apply water, a frequency to apply water, and a water applicationmethod. In an embodiment, the selected set of farming operationsidentifies one or more of: a type of treatment to apply, a quantity oftreatment to apply, a location to apply treatment, a date to applytreatment, a frequency to apply treatment, and a treatment applicationmethod. In an embodiment, an identified treatment comprises one or moreof: an herbicide, a pesticide, and a fungicide. In an embodiment, theselected set of farming operations identifies one or more of: a harvestdate, a harvest method, and a harvest order. In an embodiment, theselected set of farming operations identifies one or more of: a piece ofequipment to use or purchase, a drainage method to implement, a cropinsurance policy to purchase, one or more potential crop brokers, one ormore potential crop purchasers, one or more harvested crop qualities,and one or more harvested crop purchase prices.

The accessed field information can describe one or more of: rainfallassociated with the first portion of land, canopy temperature associatedwith the first portion of land, soil temperature of the first portion ofland, soil moisture of the first portion of land, soil nutrients withinthe first portion of land, soil type of the first portion of land,topography within the first portion of land, humidity associated withthe first portion of land, growing degree days associated with the firstportion of land, microbial community associated with the first portionof land, pathogen presence associated with the first portion of land,prior farming operations performed at the first portion of land, priorcrops grown at the first portion of land, and other historical fieldinformation associated with the first portion of land. In an embodiment,the accessed field information describes characteristics of a cropplanted within the first portion of land, including one or more of: aplant stage of the crop, a color of the crop, a stand count of the crop,a crop height, a root length of the crop, a root architecture of thecrop, an immune response of the crop, flowering of the crop, andtasseling of the crop.

The crop growth program can include a set of instructions associatedwith planting, growing, and harvesting one or more of corn, rice,cotton, and soybeans. In an embodiment, the crop growth programidentifies a plurality of sub-portions of the first portion of land, andcomprises a set of instructions associated with planting, growing, andharvesting a different crop type or crop variety within each of theplurality of sub-portions.

The accessed field information can be collected from one or more of:sensors located at the first portion of land, satellites, aircraft,unmanned aerial vehicles, land-based vehicles, and land-based camerasystems.

The prediction model can map characteristics described by the fieldinformation to the selected set of farming operations. A measure of cropproductivity associated with the selected set of farming operations isgreater than similar measures of crop productivity associated with othersets of farming operations. In an embodiment, the system furtheraccesses growth data associated with crop growth resulting in animplementation of the crop growth program and retrains the predictionmodel using one or more machine learning operations based additionallyon the accessed growth data.

The first portion of land can be associated with multiple sub-portionsof land, and the system applies the prediction model by identifying acluster of the sub-portions with a threshold similarity, applying theprediction model to accessed field data with the cluster of thesub-portions of land, and selects the set of farming operationscomprising farming operations that maximize crop productivity for thecluster of the sub-portions of land. In an embodiment, the identifiedcluster of the sub-portions of land are associated with one or morecommon field information characteristics.

The selected set of farming operations can be provided directly to arecipient smart equipment or sensor for execution by the recipient smartequipment and sensor. In an embodiment, the recipient smart equipmentincludes a harvesting system and the selected set of farming operationsinclude a harvest route, path, plan, or order.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a system environment in which a machinelearning crop prediction system operates, according to variousembodiments.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example geographic database for a machine learningcrop prediction system.

FIG. 3 illustrates an example agricultural database for a machinelearning crop prediction system.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram of a machine learning crop prediction engine,according to various embodiments.

FIG. 5 illustrates an example land plot partitioned into one or moreplanting regions.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example process for using machine learning topredict crop production information and to identify a set of farmingoperations that optimize crop production for a portion of land beforeplanting a crop within the portion of land, according to variousembodiments.

FIG. 7 illustrates an example process for using machine learning topredict updated crop production information and to identify an updatedset of farming operations that further optimize crop production for aportion of land after planting a crop within the portion of land,according to various embodiments.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating a process for applying a machinelearning engine to historic and current field information to generatepredictions of crop production and to identify a set of farmingoperations that optimize crop production, according to variousembodiments.

FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating a process for applying a machinelearning engine to historic and current field information to identify aset of farming operations that optimize crop production, according tovarious embodiments.

FIG. 10 is a high-level block diagram illustrating physical componentsof a computer used as part or all of one or more of the entitiesdescribed herein, according to various embodiments.

The figures depict various embodiments for purposes of illustrationonly. One skilled in the art will readily recognize from the followingdiscussion that alternative embodiments of the structures and methodsillustrated herein may be employed without departing from the principlesdescribed herein.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Environment Overview

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a system environment 100 in which a machinelearning crop prediction system operates. The system environment 100shown in FIG. 1 includes a grower client device 102, a broker clientdevice 104, a crop recipient client device 106, an agronomist clientdevice 108, external databases 112, sensor data sources 114, image datasources 116, and the crop prediction system 125. In alternativeconfigurations, different, additional, and/or fewer components may beincluded in the system environment 100. For instance, one or more of thecomponents illustrated in FIG. 1 may be implemented within the samecomputing device.

The grower client devices 102, broker client devices 104, crop recipientclient devices 106, and agronomist client devices 108 are computingdevices capable of receiving user input, displaying information to auser, and transmitting and/or receiving data via the network 120.Hereafter, a “client device” can refer to any of the grower clientdevice 102, broker client device 104, crop recipient client device 106,and agronomist client device 108. In one embodiment, a client device maybe any device having computer functionality, such as a personal digitalassistant (PDA), a mobile telephone, a smartphone, a tablet computer, adesktop or laptop computer, a server, a workstation, smart farmingequipment (such as a smart tractor, sprinkler system, and the like),unmanned aerial and ground based vehicles both remotely controlled andautonomous, or another suitable device. A client device is configured tocommunicate with the crop prediction system 125 via the network 120, forexample using a native application executed by the client device, a webbrowser running on the client device, or through an applicationprogramming interface (API) accessed by a native operating system of theclient device, such as IOS® or ANDROID™.

The grower client device 102 communicates with the crop predictionsystem 125 via the network 120 to request and receive crop predictioninformation, such as predictions of crop production, selections of cropsto plant, and farming operations that, when performed, optimize cropproductivity. In one embodiment, the grower client device 102 accessesthe crop prediction system 125 via an interface 130 generated by thecrop prediction system 125. In some embodiments, the grower clientdevice 102 receives user input from a grower describing geographic andagricultural data associated with one or more portions of land farmed bya user of the grower client device, for instance in conjunction with arequest for crop prediction information. The geographic and agriculturaldata from the grower client device 102 can be used by the cropprediction system 125, for instance to train one or more crop predictionmodels and/or as an input to previously trained crop prediction modelsin order to predict crop production and identify a set of farmingoperations that can optimize crop production.

As used herein, a “crop prediction model” (or “machine learningprediction model”, or simply “prediction model” hereinafter) refers toany model that uses one or more machine learning operations to predict ameasure of crop production based on information comprising fieldinformation, or that is trained on information comprising fieldinformation using one or more machine learning operations. Inapplication, crop prediction models produce crop prediction information,including a predicted measure of crop production and a set of farmingoperations that, when performed, is expected to produce the predictedmeasure of crop production. In practice, a crop prediction model can useor be trained by any machine learning operation, such as those describedherein, or any combination of machine learning operations forpredictions of crop production. As used herein, “crop predictioninformation” (or “crop production prediction information”, “predictioncrop production”, or simply “prediction information” hereinafter) canrefer to any measure of an expected crop production, such as crop yield,crop quality, crop value, or any other suitable measure of cropproduction (including those described herein), and can refer to a set offarming operations expected to result in the measure of expected cropproduction when performed in a specified manner, at a specifiedtime/location, and the like. Likewise, as used herein, “fieldinformation” can include one or more of past and present crop productioninformation, past and present geographic information, past and presentagricultural information, past and present agronomic information, pastand present sensor data associated with crop production, any otherinformation related to the planting, growing, and harvesting of a crop,and any other field parameters as described herein.

As used herein, “crop quality” can refer to any aspect of a crop thatadds value to a grower, broker, or crop recipient. In some embodiments,crop quality refers to a physical or chemical attribute of a crop, forinstance one or more of: a genetic trait, modification, or edit (or lackthereof); an epigenetic signature or lack thereof; a crop content (e.g.,moisture, protein, carbohydrate, ash, fiber, fat, oil); a crop color,whiteness, weight, transparency, hardness, percent chalky grains,proportion of corneous endosperm, presence of foreign matter, absorptionof water, milling degree, kernel size distribution or volume, averagegrain length or breadth, density, or length/breadth ratio; a number orpercentage of broken kernels or kernels with stress cracks; a fallingnumber; a farinograph; a number or percentage of immature grains; ameasure of wet gluten; a sodium dodecyl sulfate sedimentation; toxinlevels (for example, mycotoxin levels, including vomitoxin, fumonisin,ochratoxin, or aflatoxin levels); damage levels (for example, mold,insect, heat, cold, frost or other material damage); and the like. Insome embodiments, crop quality refers to an attribute of a productionmethod or environment, for instance one or more of: a soil type,chemistry, or structure; a climate type, weather type, or magnitude orfrequency of weather events; a soil or air temperature or moisture; anumber of degree days; a rain quantity; an irrigation type or lackthereof; a tillage frequency; a cover crop (past and present); a croprotation; whether the crop is organic, shade grown, greenhouse grown,fair-wage grown, no-till, pollution-free, or carbon neutral; levels andtypes of fertilizer, chemical, herbicide, or pesticide use or lackthereof; a geography of production (for example, country of origin,American Viticultural Area, mountain grown); and the like.

In some embodiments, crop quality is affected by, or may be inferredfrom, the timing of one or more production practice. For example, thefood grade quality may be inferred from the variety of plant, damagelevels, and one or more production practices used to grow the plant. Inanother example, one or more qualities may be inferred from the maturityor growth stage of a crop. In some embodiments, quality is an attributeof a method of storing a harvested crop (e.g., the type of storage: bin,bag, pile, in-field, box, tank, other containerization), theenvironmental conditions (e.g. temperature, light, moisture/relativehumidity, presence of pests, CO2 levels) to which the good encounteredduring storage, method of preserving the good (e.g. freezing, drying,chemically treating), or a function of the length of time of storage. Insome embodiments, quality is a calculated, derived, inferred, orsubjective classification based on one or more measured or observedphysical or chemical attributes of a crop, or a farming operation usedin its production. In some embodiments, a quality metric is a grading orcertification by an organization or agency, for example grading by theUSDA, organic certification, or non-GMO certification. In someembodiments, a quality metric is inferred from one or more measurementsmade of crops during the growing season, for example wheat grain proteincontent may be inferred from measurement of crop canopies usinghyperspectral sensors and or NIR or visible spectroscopy of whole wheatgrains. In some embodiments, one or more quality metric is collected,measured or observed during harvest, for example dry matter content ofcorn may be measured using near-infrared spectroscopy on a combine.

The broker client device 104 communicates with the crop predictionsystem 125 via the network 120 to receive information about cropproduction for one or more portions of land, and to send requests forharvested crops (for instance, to the grower client device 102). In thisexample, the user of the broker client device 104 is in communicationwith a grower and enters into an agreement to obtain from the growersome or all of a harvested crop. Thus, the user of the broker clientdevice may be a crop recipient. In one embodiment, the broker clientdevice 104 accesses the crop prediction system 125 via an interface 130generated by the crop prediction system 125 that allows the user of thebroker client device 104 to identify predicted crop productioninformation from one or more growers, to identify sets of farmingoperations to suggest or provide to the one or more growers in order tooptimize crop production, to identify one or more prospective croprecipients in addition to the crop broker, and to automate thegeneration of crop acquisition agreements with the one or moreprospective crop recipients. A crop recipient may receive a harvestedcrop from a grower or from a crop broker.

The crop recipient client device 106 communicates with the cropprediction system 125 via the network 120 to receive information aboutpredicted crop production of one or more growers. For instance, a userof the crop recipient client device 106 can identify expected cropproductions of one or more growers, including a type of crop produced bya grower, an expected quantity of the crop produced by a grower, and acomparison of alternative crop types and total crop quantities across aset of growers (such as all growers in a geographic region). A user ofthe crop recipient client device 106 can use this information to enterinto crop acquisition agreements with one or more growers or one or morebrokers (via one or more broker client devices 104).

The agronomist client device 108 communicates with the crop predictionsystem 125 via the network 120 to access crop prediction informationgenerated by the crop prediction system. In one embodiment, a user ofthe agronomist client device 108 (such as an agricultural specialist, anindividual scouting or observing a planted crop, etc.) can review thecrop prediction information, including a set of farming operationsidentified by the crop prediction system 125 to optimize a predictedcrop production, and can modify the identified set of farmingoperations. For example, a user of the agronomist client device 108 mayaccess prediction information and a corresponding set of farmingoperations identified by the crop prediction system 125 that includesthe application of a particular type of fertilizer and a harvest date.The user of the agronomist client device 108 can change the type offertilizer to be applied, for instance based on the type of fertilizerbeing unavailable to a particular grower, and can change the harvestdate, for instance by moving the harvest date up based on expectedinclement weather. In other words, a user of the agronomist clientdevice 108 can modify farming operations identified by the cropprediction system 125 as optimal based on information available to theuser but not available to the crop prediction system 125 at the time thepredictions were made. Likewise, an agronomist can modify fieldinformation on which the crop prediction system 125 is applied (such asa field location, a crop type, an expected rainfall, and the like), andcan request that the crop prediction information generated by the cropprediction system be re-generated in order to observe the effect of themodified field information on the crop prediction information. It shouldbe noted that in some embodiments, the agronomist client device 108 andthe broker client device 104 can be the same device, and the broker andagronomist can be the same entity.

The external databases 112 are one or more sources of data describingpast or present actions, events, and characteristics associated withcrop production that can be used by machine learning processes of thecrop prediction system 125 to train crop prediction models, to applycrop prediction models to predict future crop production, and toidentify farming operations that optimize future crop production. Eachexternal database 112 may be connected to, or accessible over, one ormore wireless computer networks, such as a WiFi, an LTE network, an adhoc network (e.g., a mesh network), personal area networks (e.g.,Bluetooth, near field communication, etc.), and the like. Externaldatabases 112 may include one or more Web-based servers which mayprovide access to stored and/or real time information. In someembodiments, the crop prediction system 125 accesses information fromthe external databases 112 directly, while in other embodiments, theinformation is manually entered (for instance, by a grower, anagronomist, or an entity associated with the crop prediction system (forinstance, via a GUI generated by the interface module 130 and displayedvia the grower client device 102, the agronomist client device 108, orthe like). Examples of external databases 112 can include:

-   -   Databases including inputs from growers or grower client devices        102 describing crops planted (including crop variety, hybrid        crop types, and chemical/microbial coatings of crop seed),        actions taken during past years or seasons, planting dates,        planting depths, row spacing, planting speed, seed application        rate (including minimum, average, and maximum rates), locations        and identification of portions of land on which the crops were        planted (e.g., management zones), and actions taken before,        during, and after planting;    -   Publications or publication databases describing farming        operations, applications, and corresponding effects on crop        production;    -   Inputs from growers describing treatments and applications to        land, including fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, fungicides,        nematicides, lime, and watering types and quantities;    -   Inputs from growers describing actions taken with regards to        land, including tilling, irrigation, and topological        modifications;    -   Crop production databases describing historic crop planting,        growth, and harvesting;    -   Weather databases describing historic weather patterns,        including rainfall, temperature, sunlight, humidity, flooding,        and/or other weather information;    -   Geographic database describing characteristics and boundaries of        portions of land, including one or more of: soil type, soil        composition, soil nutrients, microbial community sampling, water        availability, geographic features (including elevations, slopes,        and aspects), landmarks, geographic property boundaries, field        boundaries, and/or land ownership;    -   Geographic database describing outbreaks of crop diseases,        pests, weeds, fungi, and nematodes;    -   Seed databases describing seed availability, seed variant (for        example, seed variety), seed requirements, genetic information,        and/or corresponding crop production information;    -   Cost databases describing seed prices, commodity prices, prices        of products or treatments, machinery and repair costs, labor        costs, fuel and electricity costs, land costs, insurance costs,        storage costs, and transportation costs;    -   Agricultural databases maintained by local, state, or national        governments, academic institutions, non-profit organizations,        and/or farming collectives; and    -   Interpolations for locations or regions in which historic data        is not available based on nearby locations, county level data,        and similar plots of land.

The sensor data sources 114 are one or more sources of data taken fromsensors describing past or current measurements associated with cropproduction that can be used by machine learning processes of the cropprediction system 125 to train crop prediction models, to apply cropprediction models to predict future crop production, and to identifyfarming operations that optimize future crop production. In someembodiments, sensor data sources are one or more sources of data takenfrom sensors describing past or current measurements associated withcrop growth, the environment and/or portions of land. In one embodiment,each sensor data source 114 may be connected to, or accessible over, oneor more wireless computer networks, such as a WiFi, an LTE network, anad hoc network (e.g., a mesh network), personal area networks (e.g.,Bluetooth, near field communication, etc.), and the like. In suchembodiments, the crop prediction system 125 may directly couple with oneor more sensor data sources 114 and can receive sensor data withouthuman intervention. For instance, a smart tractor can collectinformation such as temperature and sunlight information while operatingwithin a field, and can communicatively couple with the crop predictionsystem 125 (for instance, via an LTE network) to provide the collectedtemperature and sunlight information in association with informationidentifying the field. In other embodiments, data from sensor datasources 114 may be manually entered (e.g., by growers or agronomists)within a data entry GUI generated by the interface module 130 andpresented by a client device.

Sensor data from sensor data sources 114 may be taken at one or moretimes during a growing season or across multiple growing seasons, atmanual or automated triggers (e.g., a threshold time since a previousmeasurement; a request by a grower to receive a measurement). Sensordata sources 114 may be deployed across diverse locations (e.g.,spatially along the surface of a field, at different depths orelevations relative to the ground) and at different times during thegrowing season. Sensor data sources 114 may additionally be located atfixed points (e.g., a sensor placed at a designated point on a field) ormay be coupled to moving objects (e.g., an autonomous, manned, orremotely controlled land or aerial vehicle). In addition to sensormeasurements, sensor health data (such as available power, componentmalfunction or degradation, diminished communication strength, etc.) andother sensor metadata (such as GPS location data) can be collected foruse in verifying the quality of measurement data collected by thesensors and determining the health of the sensors themselves. Examplesof sensor data sources 114 can include:

-   -   Thermometers for measuring soil temperature data, atmospheric        temperature data, and/or leaf temperature data;    -   Barometers for measuring atmospheric pressure;    -   Weather sensors for detecting one or more of: precipitation,        wind direction, wind speed, and the like;    -   Soil composition sensors for measuring components of soil        including: soil minerals, soil texture (as determined by the        percentages of sand—particles between 0.05-2.00 mm in diameter,        silt—particles between 0.002-0.05 mm in diameter, and        clay—particles less than 0.002 mm in diameter, in the soil),        soil particle size, organic matter, water, and gases (including        oxygen, carbon dioxide, nitrogen);    -   Moisture sensors, for measuring soil moisture data and leaf        wetness data;    -   Hygrometers for measuring for measuring the humidity or the        amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, the soil or other        medium;    -   Pyranometers, net radiometers, quantum sensors, and        pyrheliometers for measuring solar radiation;    -   Cameras for measuring incoming light and recording reflectance        as an electric signals which may be stored as a digital file;    -   Spectrometers, spectrophotometers, spectrographs, and spectral        analyzers for measuring properties of light, including        reflectance or transmission, over one or more portions of the        electromagnetic spectrum;    -   Refractometers for measuring refractive light passing through a        sample, for example to measure total dissolved solids in a        sample (e.g. sugar content of an aqueous solution) such as a        plant sap;    -   Spectroradiometers and radiometers for measuring spectral        radiance or irradiance across various spectral ranges;    -   Electrical conductivity sensors for measuring the ability of a        material (for example soil) to conduct electricity, from which        one or more properties can be inferred or computed, including a        water holding capacity, a cation exchange capacity, a depth to        claypan or rock outcropping (depth of topsoil), a salinity, and        a temperature;    -   Penetrometers for measuring soil compaction; and    -   pH sensors for measuring acidity or alkalinity of an aqueous        solution, from which, one or more properties can be inferred or        computed, including a soil nutrient availability and a leaching.

The image data sources 116 are one or more sources of image data thatcan be used by machine learning operation of the crop prediction system125 to train crop prediction models, to apply crop prediction models topredict future crop production, and to identify farming operations thatoptimize future crop production. In one embodiment, each image datasource 116 may be connected to, or accessible over, one or more wirelesscomputer networks, such as a WiFi, an LTE network, an ad hoc network(e.g., a mesh network), personal area networks (e.g., Bluetooth, nearfield communication, etc.), and the like. In such embodiments, the cropprediction system 125 may directly couple with one or more image datasources 116 and can receive image data without human intervention. Forinstance, a drone can collect images during operation and cancommunicatively couple with the crop prediction system 125 (forinstance, via an LTE network) to provide the collected images inassociation with information identifying the field. As used herein,“image data source” can refer individually to the instrument capturingthe image (such as the camera, radiometer, and the like) andcollectively to the instrument capturing the image and anyinfrastructure (such as a vehicle, stand, machinery, and the like) towhich the instrument is coupled. As used herein, “image data” can referto viewable image files (for instance, in the .JPG or .PNG format), toreflectance and absorbance data at one or more spectral bands includinga continuous range of spectra (e.g. hyperspectral images), to light datain both the visible (e.g. light between about 375 nm and 725 nm inwavelength) and non-visible spectrum (e.g. light within the infrared“IR” or ultraviolet “UV” spectrums) and combinations of visible andnon-visible spectrum, or to any representation of light signals. Invarious embodiments, image data sources 116 can include:

-   -   Satellites;    -   Aircraft;    -   Unmanned aerial vehicles including drones;    -   Manned land-based vehicles, having various means of locomotion        including wheels, tracks, legs, and the like;    -   Unmanned land-based vehicles, automated or remote controlled,        having various means of locomotion including wheels, tracks,        legs, and the like; and    -   Land-based camera system, handheld or stationary, manned or        automated, including a camera, radiometer, spectrophotometer,        and the like.

The crop prediction system 125 receives data from the external databases112, sensor data sources 114, and image data sources 116, and performsmachine learning operations on the received data to produce one or morecrop prediction models. The data from these data sources can becombined, and a standard feature set can be extracted from the combineddata, enabling crop prediction models to be generated across differenttemporal systems, different spatial coordinate systems, and measurementsystems. For example, sensor data streams can be a time series of scalarvalues linked to a specific latitude/longitude coordinate. Likewise,LiDAR data can be an array of scalar elevation values on a 10 mrectangular coordinate system, and satellite imagery can be spatialaggregates of bands of wavelengths within specific geographicboundaries. After aggregating and standardizing data from these datastreams (for instance to a universal coordinate system, such as aMilitary Grid Reference System), feature sets can be extracted andcombined (such as a soil wetness index from raw elevation data, orcumulative growing degree days from crop types and planting dates).

One or more machine learning operations can be performed on thecalculated feature sets to produce the one or more crop predictionmodels. The crop prediction models can then be applied to datadescribing a portion of land in order to predict a crop production forthe portion of land. The crop prediction system 125 is configured tocommunicate with the network 120 and may be accessed by client devicesvia the network such as grower client devices 102, broker devices 104,crop recipient client devices 106, and agronomist devices 108. The cropprediction system shown in FIG. 1 includes an interface 130, ageographic database 135, an agricultural database 140, a normalizationmodule 145, a database interface module 150, and the crop predictionengine 155. In other embodiments, the crop prediction system 125 maycontain additional, fewer, or different components for variousapplications. Conventional components such as network interfaces,security components, load balancers, failover servers, management andnetwork operations consoles, and the like are not shown so as to notobscure the details of the system architecture.

The interface 130 coordinates communications for the crop predictionsystem 125 within the environment 100, communicatively coupling to,transmitting data to, and receiving data from the other components ofFIG. 1 as needed. In some embodiments, the interface 130 generates auser interface for display by one or more of the grower client device102, the broker client device 104, the crop recipient client device 106,and the agronomist client device 108, or by a display or monitorassociated with the crop prediction system 125 or another entity withinthe environment 100. The user interface allows users to interact withthe crop prediction system 125 in a variety of ways. In one embodiment,the communicative capabilities of the interface 130 are customized basedon permissions associated with different kinds of users. For example,the interface 130 can allow a grower client device 102 to request cropproduction prediction information and a set of farming operations thatoptimize crop production for a plot of land owned by a user of thegrower client device 102, while prohibiting users that don't own theplot of land from accessing such information via other grower clientdevices 102. In another example, the interface 130 can allow anagronomist client device 108 to access sets of farming operations beingperformed by various growers and sets of data from the geographicdatabase 135 and the agricultural database 140 while preventing a croprecipient client device 106 from accessing such data. In otherembodiments, the interface 130 can generate a map interface of a portionof land, and can display icons or other information identifying alocation of sensors, farming equipment, and/or laborers within the mapinterface (for instance based on location information received from eachentity).

The geographic database 135 stores and maintains data describinggeographic characteristics of portions of land (such as fields, plots,sub-portions of the same, and the like) that may impact crop production.As used herein, a “portion of land” refers to any amount of land in anyshape or size. For instance, a “portion of land” can refer to a grower'sentire property, a field, a plot of land, a planting region, a zone ormanagement zone, and the like. Likewise, a portion of land can includeone or more “sub-portions” of land, which refers to a subset of theportion of land of any shape or size. Various types and formats of datamay be stored in the geographic database 135 for access by the othercomponents of the crop prediction system 125, on which to perform one ormore machine learning operations in order to train a crop predictionmodel, to predict a crop production for a portion of land, and toidentify a set of farming operations that optimize crop production. Thegeographic database 135 can be organized in any suitable format. Forexample, data, including geo-referenced data, may be stored as flatfiles, columnar storage, binary format, etc. which may be accessed viarelational databases, columnar databases, NoSQL stores, horizontallyscaled databases, etc. The geographic database 135 is further discussedin conjunction with FIG. 2.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example geographic database 135 for a machinelearning crop prediction system. In the example database of FIG. 2,information describing geographic characteristics that may impact cropproduction are associated with a plot index that uniquely identifies aparticular field or plot of land associated with the characteristics. Asshown in FIG. 2, the geographic database 135 associates each uniquelyidentified plot with one or more sets of associated data (“County,”“Avg. Rainfall,” and “Avg. Temp”). Although the example database of FIG.2 organizes geographic information by plot of land, in otherembodiments, the geographic database 135 can be organized in other ways,for instance by land category (field, mountain, city, etc.), by landowner, or by any other suitable characteristic. Further, although theexample database of FIG. 2 only includes three characteristics mapped toeach land plot, in practice, the geographic database 135 can include anynumber of characteristics, for instance 50 or more. Examples ofgeographic information stored by the geographic database 135 caninclude:

-   -   Past, present, and predicted future weather events, patterns, or        phenomena, including precipitation and rainfall, temperature,        sunlight, humidity, growing days, and the like;    -   Past, present, and predicted future soil composition or        characteristics for a field or fields, including soil pH, soil        sulfur level, or other abiotic or biotic features of the soil;    -   Past, present, and predicted future microbial community        composition in or on the soil from a field or fields, wherein        the microbial community composition of the soil includes one or        more bacteria or fungi (living or dead) or a product of one or        more bacteria or fungi (such as a metabolite, a protein, RNA or        DNA, and the like);    -   Past and present boundaries (manmade or natural) associated with        a field or fields;    -   Past, present, and predicted future phenomena associated with a        field or fields, including flooding, landslides, and the like;    -   Past and present reflectance and absorption data from        satellites, including normalized difference vegetation index        (NDVI) and other wavelength bands and ratios thereof;    -   Past, present, and predicted future macroeconomic factors,        including the presence of droughts or famines affecting a field        or fields; and    -   Past, present, and predicted future factors used to determine        geographic and/or environmental diversity between one or more        fields, including topology, soil type, soil nutritional        composition, soil pH, soil and atmospheric temperature, number        of growing days, precipitation, direct and indirect sunlight,        and the like.

The agricultural database 140 stores and maintains data describingagricultural characteristics associated with the planting, growing, andharvesting of a crop that may impact crop production. Various types andformats of data may be stored in the agricultural database 140 foraccess by the other components of the crop prediction system 125, onwhich to perform one or more machine learning operations in order totrain a crop prediction model, to predict a crop production for aportion of land, and to identify a set of farming operations thatoptimize crop production. The agricultural database 140 can be organizedin any suitable format, such as a columnar relational database. In oneembodiment, the agricultural database 140 includes metadata thatdescribes, for example, a product associated with a farming operation(e.g., a brand of fertilizer; a crop variant). In cases where metadatais unavailable, the crop prediction system 125 can infer the missingmetadata based on other available metadata, including time, location,events that occurred prior to/with/after an operation, input or measuredvalue having missing metadata, an identity of a corresponding grower, anidentity of a corresponding farm, row spacing, a type of machine, andthe like. In one example, a crop prediction model is trained on othersamples for which the metadata is available and applied to samples withmissing metadata, for instance using a random forest classifier, ak-nearest neighbor classifier, an AdaBoost classifier, or a Naïve Bayesclassifier. The agricultural database 140 is further discussed inconjunction with FIG. 3.

FIG. 3 illustrates an example agricultural database 140 for a machinelearning crop prediction system. In the example database of FIG. 3,information describing agricultural factors that may impact cropproduction are associated with a plot index that uniquely identifies aparticular field or plot of land and a crop variety. As shown in FIG. 3,the agricultural database 140 identifies one or more sets of data(“Plant Date,” “Field Treatments,” and “Harvest Date”) associated with aplot index and crop variant. For example, a plot index “A395” associatedwith a field and a crop variant “SOY_005” is associated with a plantingdate “Apr. 29, 2017,” field treatments including “pesticide, [and]nitrogen,” and a harvest date “Aug. 25, 2017.” Although the exampledatabase of FIG. 3 organizes geographic information by plot of land, inother embodiments, the agricultural database 140 can be organized inother ways, for instance by land category (field, mountain, city,elevation, slope, soil texture or composition, etc.), by crop variant orcategory, by land owner, or by any other suitable characteristic.Further, although the example database of FIG. 3 only includes fourcharacteristics mapped to each land plot, in practice, the agriculturaldatabase 140 can include any number of characteristics, for instance 50or more. Likewise, it should be appreciated that reference is made inFIG. 3 to generic field treatments (e.g., “pesticide”, “nitrogen”, etc.)for the purposes of simplifying the illustrated of an exampleagricultural database, and that in practice, an agricultural databasecan include specific details of applied crop treatments (such as thespecific treatment applied, the method of application, the applicationrate, date and location, etc.) Examples of agricultural informationstored by the agricultural database 140 can include:

-   -   Past, present, and predicted future crop type or plant variant        planted and data describing its growth and development,        including color of leaves, stand count, plant height, stalk        diameter, root length, root architecture (such as a number of        secondary roots, root branching, and a number of root hairs),        root mass, immune response, tasseling, plant stage, insect        damage, weed pressure, fungal infection damage, nematode damage,        sap sucrose, and the like;    -   Past, present, and predicted future microbial community        composition and/or microbial treatment in or on one or more        tissues of an identified crop variant;    -   Past, present, and predicted future plant gene expression in or        on one or more tissues of an identified crop variant;    -   Past, present, and predicted future microbial or plant hormone        or metabolite production in or on one or more tissues of an        identified crop variant;    -   One or more planting or harvest dates for an identified crop        variant;    -   Interactions with or requirements of field treatments or field        characteristics and other farming operations for an identified        crop variant, the field treatments including irrigation,        tillage, seed treatment, foliar treatment, floral treatment,        soil treatment, soil type, soil pH, soil nutrient composition,        previously planted crop types and varieties, microbial        composition, microbial composition application rate, insecticide        application, fungicide application, pesticide application,        herbicide application, fertilizer application, and the like;        -   The dates and methods of application of the field            treatments, including insecticide type, application method,            application date, and application rate; fungicide type,            application method, application date, and application rate;            pesticide type, application method, application date, and            application rate; herbicide type, application method,            application date, and application rate; fertilizer type,            application method, application date, and application rate;            and the like;    -   Seeding operations for an identified crop variant, including a        date range for planting, a soil type for planting, a soil        temperature for planting, a soil texture for planting, row        spacing for planting, a number of rows for planting, a location        for planting, a planting depth and rate, atmospheric conditions        for planting, weather conditions for planting, drainage        conditions for planting, seedbed preparation operations, and the        like.        -   Information associated with or specific to corn, soybean,            rice, and cotton crops;        -   Rice ratooning information;    -   Data calculated based on other agricultural information,        including the ratio of soil to air temperature, the ratio of        leaf to air temperature, a soil wetness index, cumulative        growing degree days, chilling hours, a chlorophyll content,        evapotranspiration, a daily light integral, photosynthetically        active radiation, a daily minimum temperature, a daily mean        temperature, a daily maximum temperature, a normalized        difference vegetation index, modified soil-adjusted vegetation        index, data calculated using other information in the database,        and the like.

The normalization module 145 receives data in a variety of formats fromthe external databases 112, sensor data sources 114, image data sources116, or other data sources and normalizes the data for storage in thegeographic database 135 and the agricultural database 140 and use by thecrop prediction engine 155. Due to the large number and disparate natureof prospective external data sources, data received by the normalizationmodule 150 may be represented in a variety of different formats. Forexample, images received from a satellite and from a drone may be indifferent image file formats, at different resolutions, and at differentscales (e.g., a pixel in each image may represent a different geographicdistance). Likewise, rainfall measurement data received from a rainsensor at a field may include a first unit (such as inches) whilerainfall estimate data from a weather monitoring entity may include asecond unit (such as centimeters).

For a particular type of data, the normalization module 145 selects acommon format, normalizes received data of the particular type into thecommon format, and stores the normalized data within the geographicdatabase 135 and the agricultural database 140. In addition, thenormalization module 145 can “clean” various types of data, for instanceby upscaling/downscaling image data, by removing outliers fromquantitative or measurement data, and interpolating sparsely populatedportions of datasets. Based on the data format and corresponding methodof normalization, the normalization module 145 can apply one or morenormalization operations including but not limited to: standardizing thecrop growth information to a common spatial grid and common units ofmeasure; interpolating data using operations that include Thiessenpolygons, kriging, isohyetal, and inverse distance weighting; detectingand correcting inconsistent data such as erroneously abrupt changes in atime-series of measurements that are physically implausible; associatinggeographic locations with pixels in an image; identifying missing valuesthat are encoded in different ways by different data sources; imputingmissing values by estimating them using values of nearest neighborsand/or using multiple imputation; and the like.

In one embodiment, the normalization module 145 generates, maintains,and/or normalizes metadata corresponding to data received from externaldata sources. Such metadata can include the source of the correspondingdata, the date the corresponding data was received, the original formatof the corresponding data, whether the corresponding data has beenmodified by a user of the crop prediction system 125, whether thecorresponding data is considered reliable, the type of processing ornormalization performed on the corresponding data, and othercharacteristics associated with the normalized data.

The database interface module 150 provides an interface between thecomponents of the crop prediction system 125 and the geographic database135 and agricultural database 140. For instance, the database interfacemodule 150 receives normalized data from the normalization module 145and stores the normalized data in the geographic database 135 and theagricultural database 140. The database interface module 150 mayadditionally modify, delete, sort, or perform other operations tomaintain the geographic database 135 and the agricultural database 140.For instance, the normalization module 145 can receive and normalize anupdated set of historic temperature data, and the database interfacemodule 150 can replace the previous historic temperature data storedwithin the geographic database 135 with the updated normalizedtemperature data. Likewise, the database interface module 150 cangenerate a view table of data, such as historic corn harvesting datawithin the state of Illinois between 1988 and 1996 in response to arequest received from a user of a client device 108 via the interface130. The database interface module 150 additionally accesses thegeographic database 135 and the agricultural database 140 to retrievedata for use by the crop prediction engine 155.

For example, when training a crop prediction model, the crop predictionengine 155 can request cotton fertilization information for plots ofland with a low soil acidity via the database interface module 150. Thedatabase interface module 150 can query the “soil acidity” column withinthe geographic database 135 to identify plots of land associated with abelow threshold soil acidity, and can query the agricultural database140 to obtain fertilization information (such as type of fertilizersapplied, quantity of fertilization applied, data of application, andresulting crop production) associated with the identified plots of land.The crop prediction engine can then provide the retrieved fertilizationinformation to the crop prediction engine 155, which in turn can apply,for instance, a neural network to the fertilization information togenerate a crop prediction model mapping low soil acidity andfertilization operations to crop production.

Likewise, if the crop prediction system 125 receives a request for acrop production prediction from a grower client device 102 for aparticular field, the crop prediction engine 155 can request informationassociated with the particular field via the database interface module150, which in turn can retrieve it from the geographic database 135(e.g., geographic information associated with the particular field,geographic information associated with other fields within a thresholdsimilarity to the requested field, etc.) and from the agriculturaldatabase 140 (e.g., agricultural information describing crop variantspreviously grown in the particular field and similar fields, farmingoperations performed on the previously grown crop variants, andcorresponding crop production information). The database interfacemodule 150 can then provide the requested and retrieved data to the cropprediction engine 155 for use in applying the crop prediction models togenerate crop production predictions.

The crop prediction engine 155 trains and applies crop prediction modelsby performing one or more machine learning operations to determinepredictions for crop production and corresponding sets of farmingoperations that result in the predicted crop production. The cropprediction engine 155 can request data from the various external datasources described herein for storage within the geographic database 135and the agricultural database 140, and can perform the machine learningoperations on the stored data. For example, the crop prediction engine155 can apply a Bayesian network to information describing plots of landwithin 500 meters of a body of water and corresponding rice productionin order to train a crop prediction model that maps proximity to waterto rice production. The crop prediction engine 155 can also receiverequests, for instance from a grower client device 102 or a brokerdevice 104, to predict a crop production for a particular plot of land,a particular crop, and a particular set of farming operations. Inaddition to predicting the requested crop production, the cropprediction engine 155 can also identify a modified set of farmingoperations or an alternative crop that will optimize crop production.Likewise, a grower can simply identify a portion of land and request aset of farming operations to perform (including an identification of atype or variety of crop to plant) to optimize crop production, and thecrop prediction engine 155 can apply one or more trained crop predictionmodels to information associated with the identified portion of land toidentify the set of farming operations that optimizes crop production.The crop prediction engine 155 is described further in conjunction withFIG. 5.

The crop prediction system 125 and other devices shown in FIG. 1 areconfigured to communicate via the network 120, which may include anycombination of local area and/or wide area networks, using both wiredand/or wireless communication systems. In one embodiment, the network120 uses standard communications technologies and/or protocols. Forexample, the network 120 includes communication links using technologiessuch as Ethernet, 802.11, worldwide interoperability for microwaveaccess (WiMAX), 3G, 4G, code division multiple access (CDMA), digitalsubscriber line (DSL), etc. Examples of networking protocols used forcommunicating via the network 120 include multiprotocol label switching(MPLS), transmission control protocol/Internet protocol (TCP/IP),hypertext transport protocol (HTTP), simple mail transfer protocol(SMTP), and file transfer protocol (FTP). Data exchanged over thenetwork 120 may be represented using any suitable format, such ashypertext markup language (HTML) or extensible markup language (XML). Insome embodiments, all or some of the communication links of the network120 may be encrypted using any suitable technique or techniques.

By generating crop production predictions and identifying farmingoperations to perform for particular portions of land, the cropprediction system 125 allows growers to quickly access information tooptimize crop production. Crop production may be optimized for a currentseason or over a time period of multiple seasons. As used here, “cropproduction” can refer to any measure associated with the planting,growing, and/or harvesting of crops, including but not limited to cropyield for a current year or for multiple seasons, current or futureprofit, expected planting/growing/harvesting costs, soil health over oneor more season, carbon sequestration, production at a particular date orwithin a range of dates (e.g., early or late maturing), compositionprofiles of crops (e.g., percent moisture, oil, protein, carbohydrate,or with a particular fatty acid profile, amino acid profile, or sugarcontent), and the like.

Up to hundreds or more agronomic, environmental, economic, andgeographic factors may affect crop production, and the quantity andimpact of information associated with these factors may be difficult orimpossible for a grower to accurately and efficiently internalize andapply. The crop prediction system 125 can comprehensively account forthis large quantity of crop production information, and can perform oneor more machine learning operations identify a set farming operationsand decisions for growers without requiring growers to spend the timemanually accounting for this crop production information. The result isthat the grower is able to efficiently harness the power of complexmachine learning processes to identify farming operations that, whenperformed, can increase or optimize the grower's crop yield, overhead,and profitability. Further, as described below, the crop predictionsystem 125 can enable a grower to receive updated farming operationsthroughout the course of a planting season as crop conditions (e.g.,weather, price of fertilizer, etc.) change, thereby allowing the growerto harness machine learning processes to account for unpredictablephenomena and conditions, and to further optimize crop production as aseason progresses.

Machine Learning in Crop Prediction

FIG. 4 is a block diagram of a machine learning crop prediction engine155. The crop prediction engine 155 performs one or more machinelearning operations to data from the data sources 112, 114, and 116 ofFIG. 1 to train prediction models associated with crop production. Thecrop prediction models, which when applied can perform one or moremachine learning operations, can generate prediction information forcrop production, and can identify a set of farming operations that, ifperformed, optimize crop production. The crop prediction engine 155includes an input/output module 405, a training module 410, a modelstore 415, a farming operations store 420, and a crop prediction module425. In other embodiments, the crop prediction engine 155 may containmore, fewer, or different components than those shown in FIG. 4.

The input/output module 405 accesses information for use in training andapplying crop prediction models. For instance, the input/output module405 receives a request from a grower client device 102 requesting cropproduction prediction information and including information describing afield. In another instance, the input/output module 405 accesses thegeographic database 135 and the agricultural database 140 to retrievedata for use by the training module 410 to train prediction models. Theinput/output module 405 can coordinate the transfer of informationbetween modules of the crop prediction engine 155, and can outputinformation generated by the crop prediction engine, for instance, cropproduction prediction information and/or a set of farming operationsthat optimize crop production.

The training module 410 trains crop prediction models by performingmachine learning operations on training data accessed by the cropprediction system 125, for instance from the geographic database 135 andthe agricultural database 140. For instance, the crop prediction modelsare generated based on geographic information describing various plotsof land, agricultural data describing types and varieties of cropsplanted on the plots of land and farming operations performed on theplanted crops, and harvest information describing the resulting harvestfor the planted crops. As described above in conjunction with FIGS. 2and 3, the geographic database 135 and the agricultural database 140include information describing past, present, and predicted futureconditions that impact crop production on various fields. The trainingmodule 410 generates a training set of data corresponding to a givencrop variant or a given set of field parameters. The training module 410can then perform one or more machine learning operations to identifypatterns or relationships within the training set of data based onfeature values within the training set of data deemed potentiallyrelevant to crop production associated with the field parameters or cropvariant.

The training module 410 can perform various types of machine learningoperations to train crop prediction models using all or part of accessedtraining data or feature values of the training data as inputs to themachine learning operations. Various machine learning operations may beperformed in different contexts to train the crop prediction models, andthe crop prediction models can perform various machine learningoperations when applied, including but not limited to: a generalizedlinear model, a generalized additive model, non-parametric regression,random forest, spatial regression, a Bayesian regression model, a timeseries analysis, a Bayesian network, a Gaussian network, decision treelearning, artificial neural networks, recurrent neural network,reinforcement learning, linear/non-linear regression, support vectormachines, clustering operations, genetic algorithm operations, and anycombination or order thereof. In one example, time series analysisoperations performed by the training module 410 can include vectorautoregression, ARIMA, and time-series decomposition.

The machine learning operations, when performed on input parametersdescribing a field or a crop variant, generate a crop prediction modelfor the field or crop variant associated with the input parameters. Cropprediction models can be generated upon receiving a request from agrower client device 102 for a crop production prediction, or can begenerated in advance of receiving such a request. The training module410 stores generated crop prediction models in the model store 415 forsubsequent access and application, for instance by the crop predictionmodule 425.

The training module 410 may periodically update crop prediction modelsin response to a triggering condition. For example, the training module410 can update a crop prediction model after a set amount of time haspassed since the model was last updated, after a threshold amount ofadditional training data is received corresponding to the field and cropvariant associated with the model (e.g., new data is received for fieldswith a threshold similarity to the field; new data is received for thecrop variant; new data is received from the corresponding grower clientdevice 102 about applied farming operations), or after a thresholdamount of field information is obtained for an already-planted crop(e.g., a current crop growth rate, a pest infestation rate, etc.). Inanother example, the training module 410 can update a crop predictionmodel responsive to a market event (e.g., a midseason weather event thataffects the availability of a crop supply, a greater-than-thresholdincrease or decrease in crop price, etc.).

In some embodiments, the training module 410 can update a cropprediction model responsive to an agricultural event (e.g., a plantedcrop achieves a plant growth stage, such as germination, flowering, andthe like). Likewise, the training module 410 can update a cropprediction model responsive to a request received by the crop predictionengine 155 (e.g., by a grower or an agronomist). In some embodiments,the training module 410 updates the crop prediction models iteratively,such that a crop prediction output from a crop prediction model isincorporated into a training set of data used to train crop predictionmodels. For example, if a prediction model generates a set of farmingoperations identifying a crop variant to plant and a planting date rangeto optimize crop production, the training module 410 can incorporate theset of farming operations into a training set for use in training orretraining crop prediction models.

The model store 415 stores and maintains the crop prediction modelsgenerated by the training module 410. In one embodiment, the model store415 stores the crop prediction models in association with acorresponding plot index uniquely representing the field or fields ofthe data used to train the model. The model store 415 can also receiveand store updates to the models from the training module 410, and canprovide stored prediction models, for instance in response to a requestfrom the crop prediction module 425.

The farming operations store 420 stores data describing various farmingoperations that can be performed by a grower on a field. Farmingoperations can be associated with sets of information including anexpected impact on a crop or a field, timing data describing when thefarming operation should be performed, and a method of performing thefarming operation (e.g., for farming operations requiring products suchas pesticides and fertilizers, a method may identify one or moreversions of available product). The farming operations store 420 canprovide information describing farming operations for use as inputs tocrop prediction models, for instance by the crop prediction module 425when attempting to identify a set of farming operations that optimizecrop production. Examples of farming operations stored by the farmingoperations store 420 can include:

-   -   Operations describing planting, including one or more of: a        planting rate operation, a planting depth operation, a planting        date range operation, an operation to plant an identified crop        variant, an operation to not plant a crop, an operation to plant        a different type of crop than an identified type of crop (e.g.,        an operation to plant an intercrop, an operation to plant a        cover crop), and the like;        -   Operations describing replanting, including one or more of:            an operation to replant a crop; an operation to plant a            different crop; an region of the field for replanting; a            date range for replanting, and the like;    -   Operations describing fertilizer applications to a field,        including an application of one or more macronutrients or        micronutrients, compost, manure, lime, or nitrogen (anhydrous        ammonia, urea, and urea-ammonium nitrogen);        -   Operations describing the application of nutrients, the            nutrients including one or more of: nitrogen, phosphorous,            potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, boron, chlorine,            copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, zinc, and the like.        -   Operations describing the application of nutrients,            including: a type of nutrient to apply, a quantity of            nutrient to apply, a location to apply a nutrient, a date            range to apply a nutrient, a frequency to apply a nutrient,            a nutrient application method, and the like;        -   Operations describing specific methods of fertilizer            application, including a knifing application, a y-drop            application, spraying from a machine (e.g., a plane or            tractor), or the distribution of pellets;    -   Operations describing field or crop treatments, including one or        more of: a seed treatment operation, a foliar treatment        operation, a floral treatment operation, an irrigation        operation, a soil treatment operation, a reseeding operation, a        microbial composition application operation, an insecticide        application operation, a herbicide application operation, a        pesticide application operation, a fungicide application        operation, an antibacterial operation, a plant hormone        operation, a protein application, and the like;        -   Operations including, for each of the field treatments, one            or more of: a type of treatment to apply; a quantity of            treatment; a location to apply treatment; a date to apply            treatment; a frequency to apply treatment; a rate of            treatment application; a method of treatment application; an            application volume of one or more of a plant growth            regulator, a defoliant, and a desiccant; and the like.    -   Operations describing harvesting, including a harvest date range        operation, a harvest method operation, a harvest order        operation, and the like;    -   Operations for collecting additional data describing the field,        including one or more of: additional sampling from existing        sensors, placement of additional sensors, additional drone        flights to capture additional images, sequencing one or more        microbial communities (e.g., of the plant, of the soil, of the        air, of the irrigation water), and the like;    -   Operations describing portions or management zones of a field        for one or more of: planting, applying fertilizers, applying        nutrients, applying water, applying agricultural chemicals,        applying irrigation or drainage operations, applying a microbial        composition, applying a crop treatment, and the like;    -   Operations describing watering methods, including one or more        of: a quantity of water to apply, a location to apply water, a        date or date range to apply water, time of day to apply water, a        frequency to apply water, and a water application method; and    -   Operations describing market information, including one or more        of: a piece of equipment to purchase, a crop insurance policy to        purchase, a time to sell a crop (e.g. a present or future sale),        a price at which to sell a crop, a quantity of a crop to sell, a        period to store a crop, one or more potential crop brokers, one        or more potential crop recipients, one or more agronomists, and        one or more harvested crop purchase prices or qualities.

The crop prediction module 425 receives a request to generate anoptimized crop production prediction for a field (which can includemultiple fields or plots of land, adjacent or otherwise) and applies oneor more crop prediction models data associated with the field todetermine a set of farming operations to optimize a crop production forthe field. In one embodiment, the request is received from a grower viaclient device 102. In other embodiments, the request is received via aGUI generated by the interface module 130 and displayed on a clientdevice of third party, such as a technology or service provider, acommodity trader, or a manufacturer of a good utilizing one or moreagricultural inputs. For example, a technology provider can include amanufacturer of a technology such as an agricultural chemical, microbialcomposition, sensor, satellite, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicle,land-based vehicle, land-based camera system, and the like. In suchcases, “optimizing crop production” can refer to optimizing the use of atechnology or service provided by such a third party (for instance,optimizing the cost of or resulting crop yield from using a technologyor service), including the date and location of the use of a technologyor service and any targeted field parameters associated with such use.In another example, a service provider can include a data provider(e.g., data describing weather, crop production, crop input use, imagery(drone, satellite, or land-based), data from a sensor, and/or commodityprices); an agronomist or other advisor; a service provider (e.g. grainmarketing services), a broker or exporter, a procurement servicesprovider, a delivery or transportation service provider, and the like.

In some embodiments, the request to generate an optimized cropproduction prediction is generated in response to conditions associatedwith a triggering event being satisfied. Examples of such triggeringevents include but are not limited to: a market event (such as an above-or below-threshold quantity of harvested crop being available forpurchase), a contracting event (such as the grower and crop brokerentering into an agreement wherein the crop broker obtains from thegrower some or all of a crop to be harvested), a product supply event(such as the price of a particular fertilizer exceeding a threshold), acrop growth event (such as a growth rate of a planted crop exceeding athreshold), a weather event (such as a below-threshold amount of rainover a pre-determined time period), and the like. In some embodiments,the request to generate an optimized crop production can come from agrower or broker immediately before planting, shortly after planting, ormid-season, for instance in response to a grower manually adjusting oneor more field parameters or farming operations previously provided bythe crop prediction module 425. By applying a crop prediction model atvarious points throughout a growing season, the set of farmingoperations performed by a grower can be iteratively optimized,accounting for mid-season changes or events related to growing, land, ormarket characteristics.

Responsive to receiving the request, the crop prediction module 425accesses geographic information associated with the field. The cropprediction module 425 accesses the model store 415 to retrieve one ormore crop prediction models associated with the request, and applies theretrieved prediction models to the accessed geographic information. Thecrop prediction models can iterate through various combinations offarming operations to identify a set of farming operations thatoptimizes for crop production. In some embodiments, the type of cropproduction (e.g., crop yield, cost reduction, etc.) that the cropprediction models optimize for can be included within the requestreceived by the crop prediction module 425, can be specified by a userassociated with the crop prediction engine 155, can be a default cropproduction type, or can be selected based on any suitable criteria.

In some embodiments, a crop prediction model P used by the cropprediction module 425 can be represented as:crop prediction=P(field₁,field₂, . . . field_(x);farmop₁,farmop₂, . . .farmop_(y))  Equation 1In Equation 1, field parameters are represented by variables field₁,field₂, . . . , field_(x), and farming operations farmop₁, farmop₁, . .. , farmop_(y). As used herein, a “field parameter” is any type of fieldinformation that describes a geographic or agricultural characteristicassociated with the land, the environment, or the planting, growing, andharvesting of a crop. In some embodiments, the field parameters used asinputs to the crop prediction model are included within a request forprediction information. For example, a farmer can use a grower clientdevice 102 to request prediction information for a crop planted at aparticular portion of the farmer's field, and the farmer can specify thesoil type of the field portion, historic crops planted at the fieldportion, and an available irrigation system for the field portion. Insome embodiments, the field parameters are retrieved from the geographicdatabase 135, the agricultural database 140, or an external source (suchas an entity of FIG. 1). Continuing with the previous example, after thefarmer requests prediction information, the crop prediction engine 155can access historic sunlight information for the field portion from thegeographic database 135, crop yield information for similar fields fromthe agricultural database 140, and an expected future rainfall for thefield portion from a weather database. As also used herein, a “farmingoperation” refers to the performance of an action by a grower or otherentity with regards to the planting, growing, harvesting, and/or storageof a crop. In various embodiments, the entity requesting the predictioninformation can provide one or more farming operations that they intendto perform, and/or the crop prediction module 425 can access farmingoperations from the farming operations store 420.

The crop prediction module 425 applies the prediction model P to thefield parameters and a set of farming operations to generate aprediction of crop production for the field parameters and the set offarming operations. Continuing with the previous examples, for aspecified field portion, soil type, historic planted crops, availableirrigation, historic sunlight information, crop yield for similarfields, and expected future rainfall, the crop prediction module 425 canapply a corresponding crop prediction model that, when applied, performsone or more machine learning operations on these farming parameters toidentify a set of farming operations and a predicted crop production forthe field portion if the selected set of farming operations areperformed. The machine learning operations performed by the cropprediction module 425 can iterate through multiple combinations offarming operations in order to identify a set of operations thatoptimizes predicted crop production. In some instances, the set ofavailable farming operations are constrained by the resources availableto the grower (e.g. farm equipment such as tractors or drones, labor,capital, field size, input availability or prices in the regioncomprising the land, etc.). For instance, the crop prediction module 425can perform a random forest classifier or a gradient boosting operationto identify the set of farming operations that produces the optimizedcrop prediction without having to exhaustively iterate through everycombination of possible farming operations.

In some embodiments, crop prediction models are applied to a particularcrop type or variant, such as a crop variety specified by a grower. A“variant” of a crop or plant (or element thereof, e.g. a seed)represents a particular instance of natural or artificially introducedgenetic or epigenetic diversity of a crop or plant. For example, agenetic variant may be a crop variety, a genetically modified trait(such as represented by transgenic events MON87460 (Genuity®DroughtGard™), DP73496 (Optimum® Gly), SYN-000H2-5, or genomeengineering including genetic variants introduced by targeted nucleasessuch as a targeted nuclease transcription activator-like effectornuclease (TALEN), zinc finger nuclease (ZNF), clustered regulatoryinterspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), CRISPR/Cas9,CRISPR/CPF1, and combinations thereof), or an epigenetic trait such asintroduced by treatment with a DNA methyltransferase inhibitor such as5-azacytidine, or a histone deacetylase inhibitor such as2-amino-7-methoxy-3H-phenoxazin-3-one or genomic perturbation such asvia tissue culture. In other embodiments, the crop prediction module 425additionally modifies the crop type or variant when applying a cropprediction model to determine a crop type or variant that optimizes thecrop production. In these embodiments, the crop prediction module 425identifies a crop variant and a set of farming operations correspondingto the identified crop variant, for instance for display on the growerclient device 102.

In some embodiments, a crop prediction model can be a neural networktrained on geographic and agricultural data, including for instance,land characteristics, crop types planted, farming operations performed,and resulting crop productions. The resulting neural network can mapcombinations of geographic and agricultural inputs to resulting cropproductions, including geographic, agricultural inputs, and cropproductions (and combinations thereof) that weren't included in thetraining data. When the crop prediction module 425 applies the neuralnetwork to a set of field parameters (for instance, included within arequest received from a grower or broker), the neural network can varypossible combinations of farming operations to identify a set of farmingoperations mapped to an optimized crop production. It should be notedthat for the machine learning operations and crop prediction modelsdescribed herein, an “optimized crop production” may refer to a maximumcrop production over a threshold number of iterations or time. In otherwords, a predicted optimized crop production may refer to a localmaximum crop production discovered over the course of applying a machinelearning operation or a crop prediction model to a set of inputs, butnot necessarily a global maximum over all possible combinations offarming operations.

In some embodiments, a crop prediction model can be a Bayesianclassifier trained on geographic and agricultural data, including forinstance, land characteristics, crop types planted, farming operationsperformed, and resulting crop productions. The resulting Bayesianclassifier can identify a set of farming operations that optimizes aprediction crop production by 1) enumerating all possible combinationsof farming operations and all possible outcomes, 2) determining theprobability distribution of each outcome for each combination of farmingoperations (using a Bayesian model), 3) computing the expected utilityfor each outcome (e.g., a tradeoff of profit, risk, costs, andenvironmental impact), and 4) choosing the combination of farmingoperations with the highest expected utility. Accordingly, the Bayesianclassifier can select a set of farming operations associated with apredicted crop production probability distribution that stochasticallydominates the predicted crop production probability distributionsassociated with other possible sets of farming operations.

In some embodiments, a crop prediction model can be an ensemble machinelearning model including one or more of a convolutional neural network,a spatial regression operation, a random forest classifier, and apartial least square regression operation trained on one or more of cropreflectance data, crop tissue samples, rainfall information, irrigationinformation, soil moisture information, solar radiation information,temperature information, and nitrogen application information. Theresulting ensemble model can identify a set of operations that is likelyto result in a particular protein content for wheat crops by 1)processing images (including image stitching and cloud cover correction)to obtain current season reflectance data, 2) joining the reflectancedata with current season tissue sample data and rainfall/solar radiationtime series data, and 3) selecting farming operations (includingnitrogen application and irrigation operations) that are expected toresult in the particular protein content. Accordingly, the ensemblemodel can identify a set of farming operations that, if performed, areexpected to result in a particular wheat protein content based oncurrent season conditions. It should be noted that in some embodiments,the ensemble model can also select an optimized wheat protein content,for instance based on current market prices, costs of requisitetreatments, and the like, and can identify a set of farming operationsexpected to produce the optimized wheat protein content.

In some embodiments, a crop prediction model can be a multivariableregression model trained on one or more of historic planting dates,planting rates, harvest dates, weather conditions, and solar radiation.The resulting multivariable regression model can predict whether a cropreplant will result in an optimized crop production, and can identify atype of crop (either the same crop or a different crop) to replant thatwill result in the optimized crop production. The multivariableregression model can predict a probable range of yields for a plantedcrop based on various conditions and characteristics of the crop (suchas current crop growth rate, current and expected weather conditions,and planting date), and can likewise predict a set of probable yieldranges for replanting under various conditions (varying planting date,crop type, treatments applied, etc.) If a predicted probable yield rangeof the set of probable yield ranges stochastically dominates thepredicted probable range for the planted crop, the multivariableregression model can then recommend a replant, and can identify a set offarming operations (including the type of crop to plant, planting date,and the like) that will optimize crop production for the replant.

In some embodiments, a crop prediction model can be a Bayesian modelthat includes Gaussian processes or splines, trained on historic soilsamples, information describing trends in soil nutrient contents andcomposition, and information describing soil variation over geographicregions. The resulting Bayesian model can interpolate soil sampleinformation over a portion of land, such as a grower's field, forinstance using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling or variationalinference estimations. After samples and corresponding locations areaccessed for a particular portion of land, the Bayesian model can bequeried for a soil characteristic or measurement (such as pH) at aparticular location within the portion of land, and the Bayesian modelcan provide an inferred soil characteristic or measurement (or aprobable range) in response.

Examples of other crop prediction models that perform one or moremachine learning operations include but are not limited to:

-   -   Models that map sunlight exposure information, soil texture, and        precipitation and various planting dates to expected crop yield        and quality;    -   Models that map historic pest and insect populations within a        location and the application of various quantities and types of        pesticides to expected crop yield or expected crop loss from        pest and insect damage (for instance, relative to expected crop        yields when pest and insect damage does not occur);    -   Models that map a decision to opt against planting a crop or to        plant a cover crop to long-term profitability;    -   Models that map crops planted in one or more previous years to        current season yields in order to estimate the effects of crop        rotation while controlling for location and weather;    -   Models that map soil composition information, crop rotation, and        various combinations of nutrient application types, quantities,        and methods to long-term soil health;    -   Models that map expected rainfall and various combinations of        row spacing and seed rates to crop yield;    -   Models that map expected temperature and various combinations of        row spacing and seeding rates to crop yield;    -   Models that map macroeconomic factors domestic and foreign        supply and demand of agricultural crops or inputs to        agricultural production, domestic or foreign policy, export or        import regulation, exchange rates or natural phenomena such as        regional flooding or droughts to expected crop yield or expected        crop loss;    -   Models that map geographic or topographic factors of or near a        field such as mountains, hills, valleys, or bodies of water and        various combinations of watering frequency, watering intensity,        and watering method to crop yield;    -   Models that map crop production to crop planting conditions,        including which crop to plant (or whether to plant a crop at        all), which varieties of seeds to plant, which seed chemistry        package to apply, which microbial seed coating to apply, when to        plant, at what rate to plant, what in-furrow to use, whether to        replant, and which cover crop to plant, determined based on one        or more of: 1) historical data on crops planted, weather that        occurred, and resulting yield, 2) historical crop health, 3)        elevation (including derived slope, aspect, and soil wetness        index), 4) historical soil texture and soil nutrients, 5)        historical and forecasted weather (including solar radiation),        and 6) historical and current prices of crops (including futures        contracts);    -   Models that map crop production to treatment application (such        as Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Calcium, Magnesium, Sulfur, Boron,        Chlorine, Copper, Iron, Manganese, Molybdenum, Zinc, fertilizer,        plant growth regulator, desiccant, or defoliant), for instance        based on a method, time, location, and quantity of application,        determined based on one or more of 1) historical crop health, 2)        reports of pest and weed stress by human “scouts” who visit the        field, 3) elevation (including derived slope, aspect, and soil        wetness index), 4) historical soil texture and soil        nutrients, 5) historical and forecasted weather (including solar        radiation), and 6) historical and current prices of inputs and        crops (including futures contracts);    -   Models that map fungicide, herbicide, and nematicide application        (including which product to apply, when to apply, where to        apply, quantity to apply, and method of application) determined        based on one or more of: 1) information about incidence of pests        and weeds and disease in nearby geographic regions, 2)        historical crop health, 3) reports of pest and weed stress by        human “scouts” who visit the field, 4) elevation (including        derived slope, aspect, and soil wetness index), 5) historical        soil texture and soil nutrients, and 6) historical and        forecasted weather (including solar radiation);    -   Models that map the expected value (and/or confidence interval)        of crop insurance payments to an amount of crop insurance        purchased for one or more portions of land, determined based on        one or more of: 1) historical insurance claim data, 2)        historical and current crop prices (including futures        contracts), 3) historical and forecasted yield, 4) historical        soil texture and soil nutrients, and 5) historical and        forecasted weather.    -   Models that map crop yield and quality at harvest to harvest        date and order, determined based on one or more of: 1)        historical crop health, 2) reports from human “scouts” or from        imagery on how many crops have fallen over, 3) historical        treatment application data (including the current season), 4)        elevation (including derived slope, aspect, and soil wetness        index), 5) historical soil texture and soil nutrients, 6)        historical and forecasted weather (including solar        radiation), 7) available harvest machinery, and 8) size of        harvested land;

As noted above, the crop prediction module 425 determines an optimizedcrop production by comparing multiple predictions from multiple sets offarming operations and/or field parameters. In one embodiment, the cropprediction module 425 identifies a crop production prediction andcorresponding set of farming operations with a greatest expectedutility. The expected utility may be determined by a number of factors,for instance prioritized based on user input from a grower client device102 including yield, profitability, long-term impact to the field orenvironment (e.g., addition or reduction of nutrients to the soil),composition of the crop or of the field, and the like.

The output of the crop prediction models applied by the crop predictionmodule 425 may be formatted in a variety of ways. In some embodiments,the crop prediction module 425 outputs a measure of crop productivityfor a particular set of farming operations. For example, the cropprediction module 425 can output a numerical value representing apredicted crop yield; a probability distribution (e.g., a 20% chance ofa decrease in crop production and an 80% chance of an increase inproductivity); a map overlay representing an area of land including aplanting region corresponding to a request showing management zones ofapplication of one or more farming operations and a predictedproductivity corresponding to the management zones; a predictedcost/profit ratio per acre; a yield or profitability delta relative tosimilar or nearby groups of fields; a yield or profitability deltarelative to historical practices or productivity of the same plantingregion; and the like.

In some embodiments, the crop prediction module 425 outputs a set offarming operations identified to result in an optimized crop production.For example, the crop prediction module 425 can output a crop type toplant, a planting date range, dates and quantities of nitrogenapplication, watering timing instructions, and the like. The cropprediction module 425 can modify a crop growth program or a set offarming operations identified by a grower, and can output the modifiedcrop growth program or modified set of farming operations, for instanceby highlighting the modifications made. For any type crop predictionmodel output, the interface 130 can cause a grower client device 102, anagronomist client device 108, or any other entity of FIG. 1 or otherwiseto display the crop prediction model output. In various embodiments, thecrop prediction module 425 outputs one or more farming operations in theset of farming operations directly to farming equipment (e.g., a smarttractor or sprinkler system) for implementation, such as a route totraverse, a crop treatment to apply, or an instruction to capture imagesof an identified portion of a field. In some embodiments, the interface130 can modify a user interface displayed by an external device (such asthe grower client device 102) to display (for instance) a set of farmingoperations to perform and an expected crop yield that will result fromperforming the displayed set of farming operations.

FIG. 5 illustrates an example land plot 500 partitioned into one or moreplanting regions 515. The land plot 500 includes features such as ahouse 505 and a river 510 that may impact the crop production ofneighboring planting regions. As shown in FIG. 5, one or more plantingregions may be part of a single field (e.g., one field is split intofour planting regions: a first planting region 515A, a second plantingregion 515B, a third planting region 515C, and a fourth planting region515D). The one or more planting regions are associated with one or moresets of data describing the conditions, composition, and othercharacteristics that may impact crop production and that may vary fromplanting to region to planting region (even among planting regionswithin a same field). In embodiments where one or more of the plantingregions of a field satisfy a threshold similarity, the crop predictionsystem 125 can apply a prediction model to the cluster of the one ormore planting regions. In other embodiments where various plantingregions do not satisfy a threshold similarity, the crop predictionsystem 125 can apply the prediction model to each planting regionindividually. Although the example of FIG. 5 describes the portions ofland as “planting regions”, it should be noted that in otherembodiments, the planting regions of FIG. 5 can be referred to as“sub-portions” of a field, “zones”, or any other suitable terminology.

For example, a planting region 515I located near a river 510 may have ahigher soil moisture content than a second region 515A located fartherfrom the river, and may be better suited to a different crop variant andset of farming operations than to the second region (e.g., the firstplanting region 515I might require less frequent or intensive wateringthan the second planting region 515A; the second planting region 515Amight be better suited to a hardier crop variant). In another example, afirst region 515E may be located on a slope and experience a greatervolume of runoff during rainfall than a second region 515F located atthe peak of a hill. Accordingly, a crop prediction system 125 mayprescribe a different crop variant and set of farming operations to thefirst region 515E than to the second region 515F despite the two regionsbeing geographically close to each other. For instance, the first region515E may require a more frequent application of pesticides to preventpesticide dilution from the runoff during rainfall than the secondregion 515F.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example process for using machine learning tooptimize crop production information and identify a set of farmingoperations that optimize crop production for a portion of land beforeplanting a crop within the portion of land. One or more unplanted fields605 are associated with a grower 610. In the example shown in FIG. 6,the unplanted fields are sub-portions of a portion of land 602 and arerepresented by unique plot indices, such that a field 605A, a field605B, a field 605C, and a field 605D are each associated with one ormore sets of field parameters. The grower 610 accesses the cropprediction system 125 via a grower client device 102 and transmits arequest to the crop prediction system including a set of fieldparameters associated with the field 605A. Responsive to receiving therequest, the crop prediction system 125 applies the crop predictionengine 155 to the set of field parameters to optimize the predicted cropproduction for the field 605A. The crop prediction engine 155 can, forinstance, perform various machine learning operations to predict cropproductions 615 for the field 605A.

The crop prediction system 125 iterates through multiple sets of farmingoperations 620 and identifies the set of farming operations associatedwith an optimized predicted crop production. In the example of FIG. 6, afirst set of farming operations 620A specifies that the crop variety isthe corn variant “CORN_008”, the plant date is Jun. 5, 2018, a pesticideapplication date is Aug. 1, 2018, and so forth. Likewise, a second setof farming operations 620B specifies that the crop variety is the cornvariant “CORN_015”, the plant date is Jun. 5, 2018, a nitrogenapplication date is Jun. 25, 2018, and so forth. Finally, a third set offarming operations 620C specifies that the crop variety is the cornvariant “CORN_110”, the planting date is Jun. 1, 2018, and so forth. Inother words, each of the sets of farming operations 620 for which thecrop prediction system 125 makes a prediction for crop production isdifferent. Likewise, each set of farming operations 620 is associatedwith a different predicted crop production. For instance, the first setof farming operations 620A is associated with a predicted production of750 units, the second set of farming operations 620B is associated witha predicted production of 735 units, and the third set of farmingoperations 620C is associated with a predicted production of 790 units.It should be noted that in practice, the crop prediction system 125 williterate through hundreds, thousands, or more sets of farming operations,and that the three sets of farming operations displayed within FIG. 6 isdone so for the purposes of simplicity.

In the embodiment of FIG. 6, the optimized predicted crop production maybe a highest predicted crop yield for a growing season, in which casethe third set of farming operations 620C is selected and provided to thegrower client device 102. In other examples, the optimized predictedcrop production may be identified based on other factors for a currentseason or over a time period of multiple seasons, and may additionallyprioritize crop yield, profit, soil health, carbon sequestration,production at a particular date, composition profile of crops, and thelike. The crop prediction system 125 transmits the identified set offarming operations corresponding to the optimized predicted cropproduction to the grower client device 102 to modify a user interface ofthe grower client device to display the identified set of farmingoperations. The grower 610 in turn can perform the identified set offarming operations on the field 605A.

FIG. 7 illustrates an example process for using machine learning topredict updated crop production information and identify an updated setof farming operations that further optimize crop production for aportion of land after planting a crop within the portion of land. One ormore planted fields 705 (corresponding to fields 605 of FIG. 6) areassociated with a grower 610, a crop variant planted on the field orfields, and a set of factors describing the field or fields. In theexample shown in FIG. 7, the planted fields 705 are sub-portions of aportion of land 702, and are represented by unique plot indices 705A,705B, 705C, and 705D. In one instance, each planted field (planted field705A, planted field 705B, planted field 705C, and planted field 705D) isassociated with a unique set of parameters and conditions that mayimpact the crop production of the field. For example, the planted field705A may be planted with a first crop variant that is different from asecond crop variant planted in the planted field 705B. In the embodimentof FIG. 7, the grower 610 selected the set of operations 620C from theexample of FIG. 6, and began implementing the set of operations 620C inthe planted field 705A.

In the example of FIG. 7, the grower 610 accesses the crop predictionsystem 125 via a grower client device 102 on Jul. 5, 2018, and transmitsa request to the crop prediction system for an updated crop productionprediction and an updated set of farming operations to perform tooptimize the crop production of the planted field 705A. The requestincludes information describing a current state of the planted field705A, including a crop variant planted in the field and any farmingoperations that have been performed on the field. The crop predictionengine 155 performs machine learning operations to generate anupdated/mid-season production prediction 715 for the field 705A.

The crop prediction system 125 iterates through multiple sets of updatedfarming operations 720 and identifies the set of farming operationsassociated with an optimized predicted crop production. In the exampleof FIG. 7, a set of updated farming operations 720 identifies previousfarming operations that have been performed in addition to a set offuture farming operations to perform. For instance, the first set ofupdated farming operations 720A is the set of farming operations 620Cselected at the time of planting the crop within the planted field 705A.The second set of updated farming operations 720B includes differentfuture operations to perform, such as an insecticide application on Aug.15, 2018, a nitrogen application on Sep. 15, 2018, and a harvest date ofOct. 1, 2018. A third set of updated farming operations 720C includes apesticide application on Sep. 15, 2018, an insecticide application onSep. 15, 2018, and a harvest date of Sep. 28, 2018. In other words, thesets of updated farming operations 720B and 720C represent a set offuture operations to perform than the originally selected set of farmingoperations 720A.

Each set of updated farming operations 720 is associated with adifferent predicted crop production. For instance, the first set ofupdated farming operations 720A is associated with an updated predictedproduction of 730 units, the second set of updated farming operations720B is associated with an updated predicted production of 805 units,and the third set of updated farming operations 720C is associated withan updated predicted production of 790 units. In other words, while theset of farming operations 620C was determined before planting torepresent an optimized set of farming operations and to result in apredicted production of 790 units, the same set of farming operations720A is determined to result in a prediction production of only 730units after the crop prediction model is re-applied mid-season. Thisdiscrepancy can be the result of a change in expected weatherconditions, a market event, or an unexpected infestation of insects.

In the embodiment of FIG. 7, the optimized predicted crop production maybe a highest predicted crop yield for a growing season, in which casethe second set of updated farming operations 720B is selected andprovided to the grower client device 102. In other examples as discussedin conjunction with FIG. 6, the optimized predicted crop production maybe identified based on other factors for a current season or over a timeperiod of multiple seasons, and may additionally prioritize crop yield,profit, soil health, carbon sequestration, production at a particulardate, composition profile of crops, and the like. The crop predictionsystem 125 transmits the set of updated farming operations 720B to thegrower client device 102 and modifies a user interface of the growerclient device to display the set of updated farming operations. Thegrower 610 in turn can perform the identified set of farming operationson the planted field 705A. As noted above, the crop prediction system125 can iterate through hundreds, thousands, or more sets of farmingoperations, and that the three sets of updated farming operationsdisplayed within FIG. 7 is done so for the purposes of simplicity.

It should be noted that although reference is made in FIGS. 6 and 7 togeneric crop treatment farming operations (e.g., “nitrogen”,“fungicide”, etc.), this is done for the purposes of simplicity and inpractice, the farming operations identified by the crop predictionsystem 125 can include specific details of crop treatment operations(such as the type of crop treatment applied, the method of application,the area and date of application, etc.) It should also be noted thatalthough the crop prediction example of FIGS. 6 and 7 is limited tofield 1, in practice, a separate set of farming operations can beidentified for each of fields 1-4, for sub-portions of one or more offields 1-4, or for the entirety of the land portions 602/702. It shouldalso be noted that in some embodiments, a set of farming operations canidentify many possible dates for planting (e.g., September 1, September2, . . . , November 29). In such embodiments, a Bayesian regressionmodel can be trained to map (for instance) crop productivity to eachpossible planting date, and the possible planting date associated withthe greatest expected crop productivity can be included within the setof farming operations. In other embodiments, a set of farming operationscan include a planting date range, for instance where each date withinthe planting date range is associated with an above-threshold expectedcrop productivity.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating a process for applying a machinelearning engine to historic and current field information to generatepredictions of crop production and to identify a set of farmingoperations that optimize crop production. In various embodiments, themethod may include different and/or additional steps than thosedescribed in conjunction with FIG. 8.

A crop prediction system 125 accesses crop growth information 805 fromone or more sources. The crop growth information can include geographicinformation, agricultural information, and crop production information.The crop prediction system 125 normalizes 810 the crop growthinformation and stores 815 the normalized crop growth information in oneor more databases, such as the geographic database 135 and theagricultural database 140. The crop prediction system 125 trains 820 acrop prediction engine 155 by applying machine learning operations tothe normalized crop growth information in the one or more databases toproduce machine-learned crop prediction models. In some embodiments, thecrop prediction models can be learned with or without human guidance,and can be learned using supervised machine learning, unsupervisedmachine learning, and/or reinforcement machine learning.

Responsive to receiving 825 a request to optimize crop productivity froma requesting entity, the crop prediction system 125 accesses 830 fieldinformation corresponding to the request. For example, field informationcorresponding to the request can include a plot index or other fieldlocation data, and information describing the conditions of the field,such as soil composition and moisture levels. The crop prediction system125 applies 835 the crop prediction engine 155 to the accessed fieldinformation and a first set of farming operations (such as a set offarming operations selected by the requesting entity, or by the cropprediction engine itself) to produce a first predicted crop production.

The crop prediction system 125 then applies 840 the crop predictionengine 155 to the accessed field information and a second set of farmingoperations (such as a set of farming operations selected by the cropprediction engine) to produce a second predicted crop production. In oneexample, the second set of farming operations includes one or morefarming operations that differ from the farming operations in the firstset of farming operations (e.g., in identity, in application or lackthereof, in application method, in timing of application, in rate ofapplication, or the like). If the second predicted crop production isgreater than the first predicted crop production, the crop predictionsystem 125 modifies 845 the first set of operations based on the secondset of operations. The crop prediction system 125 then provides 850 themodified set of farming operations to the requesting entity such thatthe modified set of farming operations may be performed 855 by therequesting entity or another entity.

FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating a process for applying a machinelearning engine to historic and current field information to identify aset of farming operations that optimize crop production. In variousembodiments, the method may include different and/or additional stepsthan those described in conjunction with FIG. 9.

In response to request for predicted crop production information, a cropprediction system 125 accesses 905 field information describing aportion of land and applies 910 a crop prediction engine 155 to theaccessed field information. For example, the crop prediction engine 155applies a Gaussian network machine learning model to the accessed fieldinformation in order to iterate through various combinations of farmingoperations to predict corresponding crop productions. Based on an outputfrom the crop prediction engine 155, the crop prediction system 125selects 915 a set of farming operations to optimize crop productivityfor the portion of land and modifies 920 a user interface displayed by aclient device associated with the request for predicted crop productioninformation to displayed a crop growth program for the portion of landbased on the selected set of farming operations.

FIG. 10 is a high-level block diagram illustrating physical componentsof a computer used as part or all of one or more of the components,systems, vehicles, or entities described herein. For example, instancesof the illustrated computer 1000 may be used as a server implementingthe crop prediction system 125, as a client device (such as the growerclient device 102) of FIG. 1, as a piece of smart farming equipment, asa field-based sensor, as a drone, and the like. Illustrated are at leastone processor 1002 coupled to a chipset 1004. Also coupled to thechipset 1004 are a memory 1006, a storage device 1008, a keyboard 1010,a graphics adapter 1012, a pointing device 1014, and a network adapter1016. A display 1018 is coupled to the graphics adapter 1012. In oneembodiment, the functionality of the chipset 1004 is provided by amemory controller hub 1020 and an I/O hub 1022. In another embodiment,the memory 1006 is coupled directly to the processor 1002 instead of thechipset 1004. In one embodiment, one or more sound devices (e.g., aloudspeaker, audio driver, etc.) are coupled to the chipset 1004.

The storage device 1008 is any non-transitory computer-readable storagemedium, such as a hard drive, compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM),DVD, or a solid-state memory device. The memory 1006 holds instructionsand data used by the processor 1002. The pointing device 1014 may be amouse, track ball, or other type of pointing device, and is used incombination with the keyboard 1010 to input data into the computer 1000.The graphics adapter 1012 displays images and other information on thedisplay 1018. The network adapter 1016 couples the computer system 1000to a local or wide area network.

As is known in the art, a computer 1000 can have different and/oradditional components than those shown in FIG. 10. In addition, thecomputer 1000 can lack certain illustrated components. In oneembodiment, a computer 1000 acting as a server may lack a keyboard 1010,pointing device 1014, graphics adapter 1012, and/or display 1018.Moreover, the storage device 1008 can be local and/or remote from thecomputer 1000 (such as embodied within a storage area network (SAN)).Likewise, a smart tractor may not include a pointing device 1014, and afield sensor may include one or more I/O mechanisms (not illustrated inFIG. 10) configured to capture external data (such as soil pH andaltitude).

As is known in the art, the computer 1000 is adapted to execute computerprogram modules for providing functionality described herein. As usedherein, the term “module” refers to computer program logic utilized toprovide the specified functionality. Thus, a module can be implementedin hardware, firmware, and/or software. In one embodiment, programmodules are stored on the storage device 1008, loaded into the memory1006, and executed by the processor 1002.

Crop Prediction in an Economic Context

As described above, the crop prediction system 125 can accessinformation describing geographic and agricultural characteristics of aportion of land, and can perform one or more machine learning operationsto identify a set of farming operations that, if performed, is expectedto optimize crop production. By providing insight into a predicted cropproduction, various entities (such as a grower, a crop broker, a croprecipient, technology manufacturer, services provider, and anagronomist) are better able to evaluate risks and benefits in view of anexpected crop productivity, and can perform various actions in view ofthose risks and benefits.

For a grower, accessing predicted crop production information can betterinform the grower about which crop types and variants to plant in orderto maximize end-of-season or future season profits, about which croptypes and varieties to plant in order to minimize crop treatment andwatering costs, about the effects of reducing crop treatment andwatering costs on the expected crop yield, about the effects of storinga crop after harvest, about the long-term benefits of planting a covercrop, and the like. Having access to such information can beneficiallyenable growers to efficiently and profitably allocate resources, improvecrop yield stability, reduce or account for short- and long-term risks,and evaluate expected market conditions months or years in advance.

Without access to such crop prediction information, growers may waituntil late in a growing season to enter into a contract with a croprecipient in order to ensure they will avoid penalties for being unableto satisfy the conditions of the contract due to a lower-than-expectedcrop yield, or to seek a higher price for a harvested crop. In instanceswhere many growers saturate the market late-season, crop recipients maybe able to extract more favorable contract terms, to the detriment ofthe growers. Further, crop recipients may have access to a broader viewof market conditions and may thus have a better understanding of thedirection of market-wide yields, creating an information asymmetry thatbenefits crop recipients. In contrast, having access to such cropprediction information can enable a grower to close the informationdeficient with crop recipients and to enter contracts with croprecipients or crop brokers early in the growing season, at a time whenfewer growers are willing to enter into contracts, enabling the growerto potentially 1) extract more favorable contract terms, 2) to optimizeprofit or another measure of crop production per unit of land, and/or 3)to provide the grower with access to resources (such as working capitalor a contract down payment) resulting from an early-season agreementwith a crop broker or recipient.

For a crop recipient, such as a food distributor, grocery store chain,or restaurant, accessing predicted crop production information canbetter inform the crop recipient about expected availabilities ofparticular crop types and variants. In turn, this can enable a croprecipient to evaluate abundance or scarcity of a desired harvested cropwithin the market, to evaluate an expected price for the desiredharvested crop, and to reduce risk when entering into contractualagreements with growers or brokers based on the expected price.Likewise, predicted crop production information can enable a croprecipient to evaluate alternative crop types and varieties in the eventthat a desired harvested crop is too scarce or expensive. For example, avegan energy bar maker can adjust a recipe for the bar prior tomanufacture if a necessary ingredient is unlikely to be available or islikely to be prohibitively expensive at the end of a growing season.

A crop broker can leverage predicted crop production information tobetter evaluate expected harvested crop availability and costs in orderto establish contracts with growers and or crop recipients. For example,a crop broker can enter into a contract with a grower at the beginningor just before a growing season with terms determined using one or morecrop prediction models or machine learning operations as describedherein. For instance, the contract can require:

-   -   the grower to provide, to the crop broker, a minimum amount of        crop, such as a percentage (e.g., 75%) of the grower's        historical crop yield, determined by applying a crop prediction        model that predicts expected crop yields to historical        information associated with the grower's field or similar fields        under similar conditions;    -   the grower to provide, to the crop broker, all or a threshold        amount of crop yield from a portion of land, for instance at a        price determined by applying a crop prediction model that        predicts expected crop prices based on current market        conditions;    -   the grower to purchase crop insurance to cover any shortfall in        order to reduce the crop broker's risk, where the amount of        coverage and/or cost of the insurance policy is determined by        applying a crop prediction model that predicts expected crop        risks and associated costs;    -   the grower to purchase or use particular products (such as        particular crop treatments, farming equipment, and field        sensors) over the course of a growing season, selected by        applying a crop prediction model that selects a set of farming        operations (some of which are associated with these products) to        optimize crop yield, optimize profitability, or lower growing        costs;        -   the grower may have the option to delay payment for such            products until after the crop is harvested and sold, for            instance if the increase in harvested crop value resulting            from the application of such products is expected to offset            the costs of such products (determined by applying the crop            prediction model);    -   the crop broker to provide an advisor, such as an agronomist, to        advise the grower in short-term and long-term land management        practices, crop growth, crop marketing, and technology products        and services based on predictions made by crop predictions        models or machine learning operations;    -   the crop broker to purchase the entirety of the grower's crop,        including any amount that exceeds the percentage that the grower        is obligated to provide, determined by applying a crop        prediction model that predicts expected crop yields;    -   the crop broker to provide the grower with some amount of        working capital, for instance a percentage of the expected value        of the grower's crop, determined by applying a crop prediction        model that predicts expected crop yields and associated market        values;    -   in instances where working capital is provided by the broker to        the grower in installments:        -   the grower may, prior to the payment of the last            installment, select the present futures price of the            harvested crop due to the crop broker after harvest,            determined by re-applying the crop prediction model in view            of present/mid-season crop conditions;        -   the broker may have the option to adjust the amount of a            next or future installment, or to cancel future installments            by re-applying the crop prediction model in view of            present/mid-season crop conditions;

For example, a broker can enter into a contract with a grower for asoybean crop harvest. The grower can be required to sell 80% of her cropto the broker at a rate of $9.50/bushel, determined by applying a cropprediction model that predicts end-of-season soybean market costs. Thebroker can be obligated to provide products and working capital to thegrower over a series of months corresponding to key phases of thelifecycle of the soybean crop. For example, payments of working capitalfor the soybean crop may be made in three installments: 1) 15% of theexpected value of the crop paid two weeks before planting, 2) 15% of theexpected value of the crop after the emergence of 8+ leaves on amajority of the plants, and 3) 20% of the value of the crop afterflowering has begun on a majority of the plants. Alternatively, 70% ofthe expected value of the crop can be paid at the time of crop storage,with the balance due upon delivery of the crop. The total expected valueof the crop, and thus the value of each working capital installment, candetermined by applying the crop prediction model at the time of eachinstallment condition. For instance, the crop prediction model can beapplied two weeks before planting to determine the first installmentpaid to the grower, can be applied again after a majority of the plantshave 8+ leaves to determine the second installment paid to the grower,and can be applied again after a majority of the plants have flowered todetermine the third installment paid to the grower.

Other entities can leverage the crop prediction models described hereinwithin a market context. For instance, an agronomist can use cropprediction models that identify mid-season crop treatments that increasean end-of-season crop value more than the cost of the crop treatments.The agronomist can then market such advice to growers, beneficiallyincreasing the grower's profitability and enabling the agronomist tocharge for such advice. Likewise, an insurer can use crop predictionmodels to calculate crop risks, and can in turn calculate the costs andcoverage of insurance policies for growers with greater accuracy thanwithout access to the crop prediction models. In an additional example,a technology manufacturer or service provider may partner with a grower,agronomist, and/or crop broker to test their products on one or moregrowers' farms or with a dataset comprising data from one or moregrowers' farms. The crop prediction models may be utilized to identifyand validate a set of farming operations and field parameters with whichtheir services or technologies are most efficaciously deployed. Itshould be noted that any other suitable entity can apply the cropprediction models described herein, and that the examples given hereinare intended to be illustrative and not limiting in any way.

Other Considerations

The foregoing description of the embodiments has been presented for thepurpose of illustration; it is not intended to be exhaustive or to limitthe patent rights to the precise forms disclosed. Persons skilled in therelevant art can appreciate that many modifications and variations arepossible in light of the above disclosure.

Some portions of this description describe the embodiments in terms ofalgorithms and symbolic representations of operations on information.These algorithmic descriptions and representations are commonly used bythose skilled in the data processing arts to convey the substance oftheir work effectively to others skilled in the art. These operations,while described functionally, computationally, or logically, areunderstood to be implemented by computer programs or equivalentelectrical circuits, microcode, or the like. Furthermore, as notedabove, the described operations and their associated modules may beembodied in software, firmware, hardware, or any combinations thereof.

Any of the steps, operations, or processes described herein may beperformed or implemented with one or more hardware or software modules,alone or in combination with other devices. In one embodiment, asoftware module is implemented with a computer program productcomprising a computer-readable medium containing computer program code,which can be executed by a computer processor for performing any or allof the steps, operations, or processes described.

Embodiments may also relate to an apparatus or system for performing theoperations herein. Such an apparatus or system may be speciallyconstructed for the required purposes, and/or it may comprise ageneral-purpose computing device selectively activated or reconfiguredby a computer program stored in the computer. Such a computer programmay be stored in a non-transitory, tangible computer readable storagemedium, or any type of media suitable for storing electronicinstructions, which may be coupled to a computer system bus.Furthermore, any computing systems referred to in the specification mayinclude a single processor or may be architectures employing multipleprocessor designs for increased computing capability.

Embodiments may also relate to a product that is produced by a computingprocess described herein. Such a product may include informationresulting from a computing process, where the information is stored on anon-transitory, computer readable storage medium and may include anyembodiment of a computer program product or other data described herein.

Finally, the language used in the specification has been principallyselected for readability and instructional purposes, and it may not havebeen selected to delineate or circumscribe the patent rights. It istherefore intended that the scope of the patent rights be limited not bythis detailed description, but rather by any claims that issue on anapplication based hereon. Accordingly, the disclosure of the embodimentsis intended to be illustrative, but not limiting, of the scope of thepatent rights, which is set forth in the following claims.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method comprising: accessing, for each of aplurality of portions of land, crop growth information describing 1)characteristics of the portion of land, 2) a first set of farmingoperations yet to be performed, and 3) a first expected cropproductivity corresponding to the first set of farming operations;identifying a cluster of portions of land associated with a thresholdsimilarity; applying a prediction model trained on crop growthinformation from a plurality of geographically diverse locations to theaccessed crop growth information associated with the cluster of portionsof land, the prediction model configured to output an optimizedprediction, for a selected portion of land within the identified clusterof the portions of land, comprising: 1) a selected variety or type ofcrop to plant, 2) a second set of farming operations that can produce asecond expected crop productivity, and 3) the second expected cropproductivity; wherein the prediction is based on inputs to theprediction model comprising: 1) the characteristics of the selectedportion of land, 2) the first set of farming operations yet to beperformed on the selected portion of land, and 3) the first expectedcrop productivity corresponding to the first set of farming operationsyet to be performed on the selected portion of land; and for theselected portion of land within the identified cluster of the portionsof land, 1) modifying the first set of farming operations yet to beperformed on the selected portion of land based on the selected varietyor type of crop to plant and the second set of farming operations, and2) modifying a user interface displayed by a client device of the userto display a crop growth program based on the modified first set offarming operations.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein a first set offarming operations identifies one or more of: a type or variant of cropto plant, an intercrop to plant, a cover crop to plant, a date to planta crop, a planting rate, a planting depth, a microbial composition, adate to apply a microbial composition, a rate of application for amicrobial composition, an agricultural chemical to apply, a date toapply an agricultural chemical, a rate of application for anagricultural chemical, type of irrigation, a date to apply irrigation, arate of application for irrigation, whether to replant the crop, whetherto replant a different crop within the portion of land, a replant date,a type of nutrient to apply, a quantity of nutrient to apply, a locationto apply a nutrient, a date to apply a nutrient, a frequency to apply anutrient, a nutrient application method, a quantity of water to apply, atype of treatment to apply, a quantity of treatment to apply, a locationto apply treatment, a date to apply treatment, a frequency to applytreatment, a treatment application method, a harvest date, a harvestmethod, a harvest order, a piece of equipment to use or purchase, adrainage method to implement, a crop insurance policy to purchase, aperiod to store a crop, one or more potential crop brokers, one or morepotential crop purchasers, one or more harvested crop purchase prices,and one or more harvested crop qualities, wherein the harvested cropqualities includes at least one of: a crop moisture content, a cropprotein content, a crop carbohydrate content, a crop oil content, a cropfat content, a crop color, a crop hardness, a measure of wet gluten, anumber or percentage of broken grains, a toxin level, a damage level,whether the crop is organic, whether the crop is shade grown, whetherthe crop is greenhouse grown, whether the crop is fair-wage grown,whether the crop is no-till grown, when the crop is pollution-freegrown, when the crop is carbon neutral, and a grading or certificationby an organization or agency.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein thethreshold similarity identifies one or more of: geography, climate, soiltype, soil composition, soil and atmospheric temperature, number ofgrowing degree days, and precipitation.
 4. The method of claim 1,wherein the crop growth program is periodically modified in response tore-applying the prediction model to periodically accessed crop growthinformation.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein the portions of land arefields, plots of land, planting regions, zones, management zones, orsub-portions thereof.
 6. The method of claim 1, wherein the predictionmodel is applied to the accessed crop growth information in response toa triggering event, wherein the triggering event comprises one of: aweather event, a temperature event, a plant growth stage event, a waterevent, a pest event, a fertilizing event, a farming machinery-relatedevent, a market event, a contract event, and a product supply event. 7.The method of claim 1, wherein the plurality of portions of land areselected from locations associated with one or more of: a thresholdgeographic diversity, a threshold environmental diversity, a thresholdgeographic similarity, and a threshold environmental similarity.
 8. Themethod of claim 1, wherein the prediction model is applied to theaccessed crop growth information in response to a request from a grower,a technology provider, a service provider, a commodity trader, a broker,an insurance provider, an agronomist, or other entity associated withone or more portions of land in the plurality of portions of land. 9.The method of claim 1, wherein crop productivity is one or more of cropyield, profit, soil health, carbon sequestration, production at aparticular date, and composition profile of crops.
 10. The method ofclaim 1, wherein the accessed crop growth information further describesone or more of: rainfall associated with the portion of land, canopytemperature associated with the portion of land, soil temperature of theportion of land, soil moisture of the portion of land, soil nutrientswithin the portion of land, soil type of the portion of land, topographywithin the portion of land, humidity associated with the portion ofland, growing degree days associated with the portion of land, microbialcommunity associated with the portion of land, pathogen presenceassociated with the portion of land, prior farming operations performedat the portion of land, prior crops grown at the portion of land, otherhistorical field information associated with the portion of land, a cropplant stage, a crop color, a crop stand count, a crop height, a croproot length, a crop root architecture, a crop immune response, a cropflowering, and a crop tasseling.
 11. The method of claim 1, wherein theprediction model comprises one or more of: a generalized linear model, ageneralized additive model, a non-parametric regression operation, arandom forest classifier, a spatial regression operation, a Bayesianregression model, a time series analysis, a Bayesian network, a Gaussiannetwork, a decision tree learning operation, an artificial neuralnetwork, a recurrent neural network, a reinforcement learning operation,linear/non-linear regression operations, a support vector machine, aclustering operation, and a genetic algorithm operation.
 12. The methodof claim 1, wherein the accessed crop growth information is collectedfrom one or more of: sensors located at a portion of land, satellites,aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, land-based vehicles, and land-basedcamera systems.
 13. The method of claim 1, wherein the accessed cropgrowth is normalized, and wherein normalizing the crop growthinformation comprises one or more of: removing format-specific contentfrom the crop growth information, removing or modifying portions of thecrop growth information associated with values that fall outside of oneor more predefined ranges, and scaling image information such that eachimage pixel represents a same distance.
 14. The method of claim 1,wherein the plurality of geographically diverse locations are differentfrom locations of the identified cluster of portions of land.
 15. Themethod of claim 1, wherein the crop growth information further describes4) a target crop to plant, and wherein the prediction model isconfigured to output the selected variety or type of crop to plant basedadditionally on the target crop to plant as an input to the predictionmodel, wherein the selected variety or type of crop to plant isdifferent from the target crop to plant.
 16. The method of claim 15,wherein the target crop to plant comprises a crop to harvest, andwherein the selected variety or type of crop to plant comprises a covercrop.
 17. The method of claim 1, wherein the modified first set offarming operations direct the user to plant the selected variety or typeof crop instead of the target crop.
 18. The method of claim 1, whereinthe modified first set of farming operations direct the user to plantthe selected variety or type of crop in addition to the target crop. 19.A system comprising: a processor; and a non-transitory computer-readablestorage medium storing executable instructions that, when executed bythe processor, cause the processor to perform steps comprising:accessing, for each of a plurality of portions of land, crop growthinformation describing 1) characteristics of the portion of land, 2) afirst set of farming operations yet to be performed, and 3) a firstexpected crop productivity corresponding to the first set of farmingoperations; identifying a cluster of portions of land associated with athreshold similarity; applying a prediction model trained on crop growthinformation from a plurality of geographically diverse locations to theaccessed crop growth information associated with the cluster of portionsof land, the prediction model configured to output an optimizedprediction for a selected portion of land within the identified clusterof the portions of land, comprising: 1) a selected variety or type ofcrop to plant, 2) a second set of farming operations that can produce asecond expected crop productivity, and 3) the second expected cropproductivity; wherein the prediction is based on inputs to theprediction model comprising: 1) the characteristics of the selectedportion of land, 2) the first set of farming operations yet to beperformed on the selected portion of land, and 3) the first expectedcrop productivity corresponding to the first set of farming operationsyet to be performed on the selected portion of land; and for theselected portion of land within the identified cluster of the portionsof land, 1) modifying the first set of farming operations yet to beperformed on the selected portion of land based on the selected varietyor type of crop to plant and the second set of farming operations, and2) modifying a user interface displayed by a client device of the userto display a crop growth program based on the modified first set offarming operations.
 20. The system of claim 19, wherein a first set offarming operations identifies one or more of: a type or variant of cropto plant, an intercrop to plant, a cover crop to plant, a date to planta crop, a planting rate, a planting depth, a microbial composition, adate to apply a microbial composition, a rate of application for amicrobial composition, an agricultural chemical to apply, a date toapply an agricultural chemical, a rate of application for anagricultural chemical, type of irrigation, a date to apply irrigation, arate of application for irrigation, whether to replant the crop, whetherto replant a different crop within the portion of land, a replant date,a type of nutrient to apply, a quantity of nutrient to apply, a locationto apply a nutrient, a date to apply a nutrient, a frequency to apply anutrient, a nutrient application method, a quantity of water to apply, atype of treatment to apply, a quantity of treatment to apply, a locationto apply treatment, a date to apply treatment, a frequency to applytreatment, a treatment application method, a harvest date, a harvestmethod, a harvest order, a piece of equipment to use or purchase, adrainage method to implement, a crop insurance policy to purchase, aperiod to store a crop, one or more potential crop brokers, one or morepotential crop purchasers, one or more harvested crop purchase prices,and one or more harvested crop qualities, wherein the harvested cropqualities includes at least one of: a crop moisture content, a cropprotein content, a crop carbohydrate content, a crop oil content, a cropfat content, a crop color, a crop hardness, a measure of wet gluten, anumber or percentage of broken grains, a toxin level, a damage level,whether the crop is organic, whether the crop is shade grown, whetherthe crop is greenhouse grown, whether the crop is fair-wage grown,whether the crop is no-till grown, when the crop is pollution-freegrown, when the crop is carbon neutral, and a grading or certificationby an organization or agency.
 21. The system of claim 19, wherein thethreshold similarity identifies one or more of: geography, climate, soiltype, soil composition, soil and atmospheric temperature, number ofgrowing degree days, and precipitation.
 22. The system of claim 19,wherein the crop growth program is periodically modified in response tore-applying the prediction model to periodically accessed crop growthinformation.
 23. The system of claim 19, wherein the portions of landare fields, plots of land, planting regions, zones, management zones, orsub-portions thereof.
 24. The system of claim 19, wherein the predictionmodel is applied to the accessed crop growth information in response toa triggering event, wherein the triggering event comprises one of: aweather event, a temperature event, a plant growth stage event, a waterevent, a pest event, a fertilizing event, a farming machinery-relatedevent, a market event, a contract event, and a product supply event. 25.The system of claim 19, wherein the plurality of portions of land areselected from locations associated with one or more of: a thresholdgeographic diversity, a threshold environmental diversity, a thresholdgeographic similarity, and a threshold environmental similarity.
 26. Thesystem of claim 19, wherein the prediction model is applied to theaccessed crop growth information in response to a request from a grower,a technology provider, a service provider, a commodity trader, a broker,an insurance provider, an agronomist, or other entity associated withone or more portions of land in the plurality of portions of land. 27.The system of claim 19, wherein crop productivity is one or more of cropyield, profit, soil health, carbon sequestration, production at aparticular date, and composition profile of crops.
 28. The system ofclaim 19, wherein the accessed crop growth information further describesone or more of: rainfall associated with the portion of land, canopytemperature associated with the portion of land, soil temperature of theportion of land, soil moisture of the portion of land, soil nutrientswithin the portion of land, soil type of the portion of land, topographywithin the portion of land, humidity associated with the portion ofland, growing degree days associated with the portion of land, microbialcommunity associated with the portion of land, pathogen presenceassociated with the portion of land, prior farming operations performedat the portion of land, prior crops grown at the portion of land, otherhistorical field information associated with the portion of land, a cropplant stage, a crop color, a crop stand count, a crop height, a croproot length, a crop root architecture, a crop immune response, a cropflowering, and a crop tasseling.
 29. The system of claim 19, wherein theprediction model comprises one or more of: a generalized linear model, ageneralized additive model, a non-parametric regression operation, arandom forest classifier, a spatial regression operation, a Bayesianregression model, a time series analysis, a Bayesian network, a Gaussiannetwork, a decision tree learning operation, an artificial neuralnetwork, a recurrent neural network, a reinforcement learning operation,linear/non-linear regression operations, a support vector machine, aclustering operation, and a genetic algorithm operation.
 30. The systemof claim 19, wherein the accessed crop growth information is collectedfrom one or more of: sensors located at a portion of land, satellites,aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, land-based vehicles, and land-basedcamera systems.
 31. The system of claim 19, wherein the accessed cropgrowth information is normalized, and where normalizing the crop growthinformation comprises one or more of: removing format-specific contentfrom the crop growth information, removing or modifying portions of thecrop growth information associated with values that fall outside of oneor more predefined ranges, and scaling image information such that eachimage pixel represents a same distance.
 32. A non-transitorycomputer-readable storage medium storing executable instructions that,when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform stepscomprising: accessing, for each of a plurality of portions of land, cropgrowth information describing 1) characteristics of the portion of land,2) a first set of farming operations yet to be performed, and 3) a firstexpected crop productivity corresponding to the first set of farmingoperations; identifying a cluster of portions of land associated with athreshold similarity; applying a prediction model trained on crop growthinformation from a plurality of geographically diverse locations to theaccessed crop growth information associated with the cluster of portionsof land, the prediction model configured to output an optimizedprediction for a selected portion of land within the identified clusterof the portions of land, comprising: 1) a selected variety or type ofcrop to plant, 2) a second set of farming operations that can produce asecond expected crop productivity, and 3) the second expected cropproductivity; wherein the prediction is based on inputs to theprediction model comprising: 1) the characteristics of the selectedportion of land, 2) the first set of farming operations yet to beperformed on the selected portion of land, and 3) the first expectedcrop productivity corresponding to the first set of farming operationsyet to be performed on the selected portion of land; and for theselected portion of land within the identified cluster of the portionsof land, 1) modifying the first set of farming operations yet to beperformed on the selected portion of land based on the selected varietyor type of crop to plant and the second set of farming operations, and2) modifying a user interface displayed by a client device of the userto display a crop growth program based on the modified first set offarming operations.
 33. The computer-readable storage medium of claim32, wherein a first set of farming operations identifies one or more of:a type or variant of crop to plant, an intercrop to plant, a cover cropto plant, a date to plant a crop, a planting rate, a planting depth, amicrobial composition, a date to apply a microbial composition, a rateof application for a microbial composition, an agricultural chemical toapply, a date to apply an agricultural chemical, a rate of applicationfor an agricultural chemical, type of irrigation, a date to applyirrigation, a rate of application for irrigation, whether to replant thecrop, whether to replant a different crop within the portion of land, areplant date, a type of nutrient to apply, a quantity of nutrient toapply, a location to apply a nutrient, a date to apply a nutrient, afrequency to apply a nutrient, a nutrient application method, a quantityof water to apply, a type of treatment to apply, a quantity of treatmentto apply, a location to apply treatment, a date to apply treatment, afrequency to apply treatment, a treatment application method, a harvestdate, a harvest method, a harvest order, a piece of equipment to use orpurchase, a drainage method to implement, a crop insurance policy topurchase, a period to store a crop, one or more potential crop brokers,one or more potential crop purchasers, one or more harvested croppurchase prices, and one or more harvested crop qualities, wherein theharvested crop qualities includes at least one of: a crop moisturecontent, a crop protein content, a crop carbohydrate content, a crop oilcontent, a crop fat content, a crop color, a crop hardness, a measure ofwet gluten, a number or percentage of broken grains, a toxin level, adamage level, whether the crop is organic, whether the crop is shadegrown, whether the crop is greenhouse grown, whether the crop isfair-wage grown, whether the crop is no-till grown, when the crop ispollution-free grown, when the crop is carbon neutral, and a grading orcertification by an organization or agency.
 34. The computer-readablestorage medium of claim 32, wherein the threshold similarity identifiesone or more of: geography, climate, soil type, soil composition, soiland atmospheric temperature, number of growing degree days, andprecipitation.
 35. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 32,wherein the crop growth program is periodically modified in response tore-applying the prediction model to periodically accessed crop growthinformation.
 36. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 32,wherein the portions of land are fields, plots of land, plantingregions, zones, management zones, or sub-portions thereof.
 37. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 32, wherein the predictionmodel is applied to the accessed crop growth information in response toa triggering event, wherein the triggering event comprises one of: aweather event, a temperature event, a plant growth stage event, a waterevent, a pest event, a fertilizing event, a farming machinery-relatedevent, a market event, a contract event, and a product supply event. 38.The computer-readable storage medium of claim 32, wherein the pluralityof portions of land are selected from locations associated with one ormore of: a threshold geographic diversity, a threshold environmentaldiversity, a threshold geographic similarity, and a thresholdenvironmental similarity.
 39. The computer-readable storage medium ofclaim 32, wherein the prediction model is applied to the accessed cropgrowth information in response to a request from a grower, a technologyprovider, a service provider, a commodity trader, a broker, an insuranceprovider, an agronomist, or other entity associated with one or moreportions of land in the plurality of portions of land.
 40. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 32, wherein crop productivityis one or more of crop yield, profit, soil health, carbon sequestration,production at a particular date, and composition profile of crops. 41.The computer-readable storage medium of claim 32, wherein the accessedcrop growth information further describes one or more of: rainfallassociated with the portion of land, canopy temperature associated withthe portion of land, soil temperature of the portion of land, soilmoisture of the portion of land, soil nutrients within the portion ofland, soil type of the portion of land, topography within the portion ofland, humidity associated with the portion of land, growing degree daysassociated with the portion of land, microbial community associated withthe portion of land, pathogen presence associated with the portion ofland, prior farming operations performed at the portion of land, priorcrops grown at the portion of land, other historical field informationassociated with the portion of land, a crop plant stage, a crop color, acrop stand count, a crop height, a crop root length, a crop rootarchitecture, a crop immune response, a crop flowering, and a croptasseling.
 42. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 32, whereinthe prediction model comprises one or more of: a generalized linearmodel, a generalized additive model, a non-parametric regressionoperation, a random forest classifier, a spatial regression operation, aBayesian regression model, a time series analysis, a Bayesian network, aGaussian network, a decision tree learning operation, an artificialneural network, a recurrent neural network, a reinforcement learningoperation, linear/non-linear regression operations, a support vectormachine, a clustering operation, and a genetic algorithm operation. 43.The computer-readable storage medium of claim 32, wherein the accessedcrop growth information is collected from one or more of: sensorslocated at a portion of land, satellites, aircraft, unmanned aerialvehicles, land-based vehicles, and land-based camera systems.
 44. Thecomputer-readable storage medium of claim 32, wherein the accessed cropgrowth information is normalized, and wherein normalizing the cropgrowth information comprises one or more of: removing format-specificcontent from the crop growth information, removing or modifying portionsof the crop growth information associated with values that fall outsideof one or more predefined ranges, and scaling image information suchthat each image pixel represents a same distance.